1 00:00:00,100 --> 00:00:02,850 11谈判的艺术主动求和的堡垒 2 00:00:03,137 --> 00:00:06,174 已然失守过半俄罗斯谚语弱者的平衡 3 00:00:06,174 --> 00:00:08,987 术关于谈判这个话题已有大量 4 00:00:09,012 --> 00:00:11,448 华而不实的空谈见诸言论与出版物 5 00:00:11,698 --> 00:00:15,311 尤以政客为甚约翰F肯尼迪 6 00:00:15,336 --> 00:00:17,562 在故作深沉的就职演说中曾 7 00:00:17,586 --> 00:00:20,250 慷慨激昂地呼吁同胞让我们永不因 8 00:00:20,250 --> 00:00:22,812 畏惧而谈判但也绝不畏惧谈判 9 00:00:23,012 --> 00:00:25,211 这种典型的混乱思维正来自这 10 00:00:25,211 --> 00:00:27,562 位美国史上最名不副实的总统 11 00:00:27,574 --> 00:00:31,625 之一空有皮相内里败絮若你因 12 00:00:31,625 --> 00:00:33,850 畏惧而谈判那根本算不上 13 00:00:33,862 --> 00:00:36,673 谈判不过是未挂降旗的投降罢了 14 00:00:37,250 --> 00:00:39,411 至于他宣言的后半段无非 15 00:00:39,423 --> 00:00:42,487 在说倾听对方诉求总有助于达成 16 00:00:42,512 --> 00:00:45,436 互利协议这等常识何劳世界 17 00:00:45,462 --> 00:00:48,987 最具权势者来指点迷津谈判也是 18 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:52,311 一个热门话题美国企业管理大师们出版 19 00:00:52,311 --> 00:00:54,700 的那些厚重大部头著作中常出现 20 00:00:54,712 --> 00:00:58,137 诸如偷天换日之术或孙子的分秒 21 00:00:58,149 --> 00:01:01,625 经理人这类标题这些内容颇为有趣 22 00:01:01,975 --> 00:01:04,150 但与致富关系甚微除非是 23 00:01:04,150 --> 00:01:06,974 在那些指望靠撰写哗众取宠的糟粕 24 00:01:07,087 --> 00:01:08,849 跻身安逸穷人之列的作家们 25 00:01:08,875 --> 00:01:12,924 臆想中然而严肃的谈判确实与 26 00:01:12,936 --> 00:01:16,012 致富息息相关这既因为出色的谈判 27 00:01:16,012 --> 00:01:19,037 者能在某些情境中真正扭转乾坤 28 00:01:19,361 --> 00:01:21,549 也令人惊讶地在于许多人自诩 29 00:01:21,549 --> 00:01:24,811 为谈判高手根据我的经验现实 30 00:01:24,837 --> 00:01:27,625 往往更为平淡我们大多数人的谈判能力 31 00:01:27,650 --> 00:01:30,625 相当平庸多数谈判本无必要对方 32 00:01:30,650 --> 00:01:33,700 往往与你同样聪明或愚蠢最终 33 00:01:33,724 --> 00:01:36,361 几乎总是弱势平衡决定结果贪婪与 34 00:01:36,375 --> 00:01:39,262 需求对决时通常是前者胜出所有 35 00:01:39,262 --> 00:01:41,561 的谈判都源于软弱除非你 36 00:01:41,561 --> 00:01:43,287 是那种奇怪群体中的一员 37 00:01:43,474 --> 00:01:46,525 对讨价还价和谈判过程本身感到陶醉 38 00:01:47,099 --> 00:01:50,412 当然讨价还价可能很有趣但就本 39 00:01:50,412 --> 00:01:52,650 书而言它只是达到目的的手段 40 00:01:53,224 --> 00:01:55,912 如果你过于喜欢讨价还价我的建议 41 00:01:55,912 --> 00:01:57,924 是别再想着用传统方式 42 00:01:57,936 --> 00:02:01,525 赚钱而是考虑成为一名政治家这样 43 00:02:01,525 --> 00:02:03,650 你就可以年复一年地掠夺和剥削 44 00:02:03,662 --> 00:02:05,849 你的同胞而不会危及自己的 45 00:02:05,875 --> 00:02:09,324 财务安全或资本你这个混蛋顺便 46 00:02:09,336 --> 00:02:11,762 说一句请习惯别人把你 47 00:02:11,775 --> 00:02:15,662 当成混蛋毕竟除了他们自己几乎所有 48 00:02:15,662 --> 00:02:17,875 人都这么看待政治家对于我们这些 49 00:02:17,900 --> 00:02:20,925 普通上班族来说严肃的谈判就 50 00:02:20,925 --> 00:02:23,449 像诉诸法律摆脱困境一样应当留给 51 00:02:23,473 --> 00:02:26,912 重要场合大多数所谓的谈判根本算 52 00:02:26,912 --> 00:02:29,986 不上谈判它们只是日常生活的组成部分 53 00:02:30,562 --> 00:02:33,986 谈判的方式取决于参与方讨论主题 54 00:02:34,437 --> 00:02:36,900 你日常的管理风格以及当天起床 55 00:02:36,900 --> 00:02:39,400 时的心情举个简单的例子 56 00:02:39,973 --> 00:02:42,000 有位员工希望每天接送孩子上 57 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:44,662 下学这据说会与他或她 58 00:02:44,662 --> 00:02:47,348 的正常工作时间冲突多大点 59 00:02:47,348 --> 00:02:49,562 事如果这位员工对你很 60 00:02:49,562 --> 00:02:53,000 重要你大概会竭尽全力协商出解决 61 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:56,736 方案若他们无足轻重你多半会严格 62 00:02:56,736 --> 00:02:59,437 执行工作所在国家或地区的法律 63 00:02:59,437 --> 00:03:02,050 条文或是敷衍地套用公司的内部 64 00:03:02,050 --> 00:03:04,912 规定就我个人而言我会允许 65 00:03:04,912 --> 00:03:07,461 他们这么做但这既是因为我 66 00:03:07,461 --> 00:03:10,336 是个闲散的经理又是个老好人至少 67 00:03:10,336 --> 00:03:12,598 在人事问题上如此无论你作 68 00:03:12,598 --> 00:03:15,111 何决定你参与的都不是协商 69 00:03:15,473 --> 00:03:18,437 而是在解决问题这一原则同样 70 00:03:18,449 --> 00:03:21,662 适用于中层薪资谈判大多数人资事务 71 00:03:21,973 --> 00:03:25,375 职位头衔的讨价还价绩效考核以及生 72 00:03:25,375 --> 00:03:28,500 鲜鱼品的定价真正的谈判如同 73 00:03:28,525 --> 00:03:32,973 坠入爱河或许你曾逢场作戏几次也曾 74 00:03:32,986 --> 00:03:36,348 对一两位恋人怦然心动但当你真正 75 00:03:36,361 --> 00:03:39,461 陷入爱河时兄弟姐妹们你会 76 00:03:39,461 --> 00:03:43,387 瞬间明白这就是爱情就像被闪电击中 77 00:03:43,949 --> 00:03:47,275 这才是严肃谈判该有的模样这种 78 00:03:47,287 --> 00:03:50,300 经历你大概有过一两次吧管理 79 00:03:50,300 --> 00:03:53,611 式讨价还价与严肃谈判切勿将严肃 80 00:03:53,625 --> 00:03:57,875 谈判与管理式讨价还价混为一谈二者所 81 00:03:57,875 --> 00:04:01,375 需的技能截然不同所有卓越的企业 82 00:04:01,574 --> 00:04:04,300 所有运营良好的组织都需要优秀 83 00:04:04,300 --> 00:04:06,824 的管理者和出色的员工这 84 00:04:06,824 --> 00:04:09,887 一点至少是显而易见的忽视这 85 00:04:09,887 --> 00:04:12,949 一点将自担风险但寻找那些 86 00:04:13,062 --> 00:04:15,562 能为琐碎任务注入使命感能 87 00:04:15,574 --> 00:04:19,461 识别潜力人选培养大器晚成者解雇庸才 88 00:04:19,487 --> 00:04:21,711 与抱怨者并能适应环境变化 89 00:04:21,711 --> 00:04:24,637 的管理者这种探寻识别与培养 90 00:04:24,737 --> 00:04:27,625 并非关于谈判它关乎在企业中 91 00:04:27,625 --> 00:04:31,199 树立真正任人唯贤的典范让裙带关系无处 92 00:04:31,199 --> 00:04:34,086 遁形让渴望成功者获得充分的 93 00:04:34,100 --> 00:04:37,850 机会与鼓励至此道理依然清晰明了 94 00:04:38,411 --> 00:04:41,300 同样地所有组织都是创始人的映照 95 00:04:41,875 --> 00:04:44,612 这听起来或许不可思议但历史已 96 00:04:44,625 --> 00:04:47,661 反复印证这一规律即便创始人早已 97 00:04:47,675 --> 00:04:51,524 离世其影响仍会延续数十年例如 98 00:04:51,949 --> 00:04:54,800 好莱坞影迷告诉我米高梅的老电影 99 00:04:54,899 --> 00:04:57,500 通常比华纳兄弟的影片略少暗黑 100 00:04:57,512 --> 00:05:01,362 气质这是源自创始人的厂牌风格经年累月 101 00:05:01,461 --> 00:05:04,112 渗透到每家制片厂的导演制片人 102 00:05:04,211 --> 00:05:07,125 乃至演员的创作中我猜想诸位 103 00:05:07,149 --> 00:05:09,750 唯一关心的风格是打造既高效 104 00:05:09,762 --> 00:05:12,600 盈利又适宜工作的组织这目标 105 00:05:12,625 --> 00:05:15,211 明智且值得称赞但无论多么必要 106 00:05:15,399 --> 00:05:17,949 多么值得推崇这类目标本质上 107 00:05:17,961 --> 00:05:21,024 属于中高层管理者的解题范畴请 108 00:05:21,024 --> 00:05:23,637 记住你读这本书不是为了 109 00:05:23,661 --> 00:05:26,149 成为一名成功的管理者管理 110 00:05:26,149 --> 00:05:29,500 者很少能致富大多数管理者只是 111 00:05:29,512 --> 00:05:32,762 执行者而你必须将目光投向 112 00:05:32,786 --> 00:05:36,675 另一个目标事实上是多个目标在通往 113 00:05:36,699 --> 00:05:39,149 致富的道路上你可能需要暂时 114 00:05:39,161 --> 00:05:42,187 伪装成管理者短期如此并且在 115 00:05:42,199 --> 00:05:44,562 被迫承担这个角色时努力成为一 116 00:05:44,562 --> 00:05:46,875 名优秀的管理者但即使你 117 00:05:46,875 --> 00:05:49,286 发现自己确实具备管理所需的细致 118 00:05:49,300 --> 00:05:51,762 才能最好也应在有能力雇佣 119 00:05:51,786 --> 00:05:54,149 合适人员后尽快放弃这个角色 120 00:05:55,100 --> 00:05:57,262 你根本不会有时间去决定谁 121 00:05:57,262 --> 00:05:59,862 在哪个办公室工作圣诞派对在哪里 122 00:05:59,875 --> 00:06:02,711 举办或者公司关于内部茶饮和咖啡 123 00:06:02,723 --> 00:06:06,036 供应的政策如果作为所有者你确实 124 00:06:06,050 --> 00:06:08,536 发现自己有时间参与这类决策 125 00:06:08,887 --> 00:06:11,850 那么我要告诉你你的组织 126 00:06:11,875 --> 00:06:14,774 正陷入严重困境就我个人而言 127 00:06:15,175 --> 00:06:17,675 我认为自己从未在旗下任何公司 128 00:06:17,774 --> 00:06:20,899 担任过出色的董事总经理或首席执行官 129 00:06:21,262 --> 00:06:23,850 因此关于中层管理人员的选拔建议 130 00:06:24,237 --> 00:06:26,675 我只能提供以下几点这个世界从不 131 00:06:26,687 --> 00:06:30,100 缺少胸怀壮志的副手绝大多数人追求的 132 00:06:30,100 --> 00:06:32,750 是职业稳定工作成就感以及对 133 00:06:32,762 --> 00:06:35,262 他人的支配权这些远比财富 134 00:06:35,286 --> 00:06:38,000 更具吸引力这实在是件幸事 135 00:06:38,562 --> 00:06:41,286 倘若世上所有优秀管理者都执意 136 00:06:41,298 --> 00:06:44,274 追求财富并甘愿为此承担必要风险 137 00:06:44,649 --> 00:06:47,312 那么像你我这样的普通人恐怕 138 00:06:47,324 --> 00:06:51,336 难有出头之日管理效率确实至关重要忠诚 139 00:06:51,350 --> 00:06:54,862 重要公平重要沉稳的性情重要懂得 140 00:06:54,887 --> 00:06:57,824 适当妥协也重要若没有管理者 141 00:06:57,937 --> 00:07:01,774 持续践行这些品质组织必将衰败但 142 00:07:01,774 --> 00:07:04,423 在涉及重大利益关乎未来命运的 143 00:07:04,449 --> 00:07:07,673 关键谈判中这些品质未必应当被 144 00:07:07,699 --> 00:07:10,187 带入谈判桌它们是一流管理 145 00:07:10,187 --> 00:07:12,187 者的特质而非谈判者的 146 00:07:12,199 --> 00:07:16,723 素养严肃谈判与日常磋商截然不同需要 147 00:07:16,723 --> 00:07:20,012 采取差异化的应对策略谈判至少 148 00:07:20,024 --> 00:07:22,486 会暴露其中一方的立场弱点这 149 00:07:22,486 --> 00:07:24,875 与无需暴露弱点的日常磋商形成 150 00:07:24,899 --> 00:07:28,649 鲜明对比首要任务或许也是最关键 151 00:07:28,649 --> 00:07:31,250 的就是精准定位这些薄弱环节 152 00:07:31,262 --> 00:07:35,298 所在当然在严肃谈判中双方阵营 153 00:07:35,324 --> 00:07:37,949 通常都存在弱点至少在一定程度 154 00:07:37,949 --> 00:07:41,387 上如此此时迅速判断哪方弱点 155 00:07:41,412 --> 00:07:45,324 更为紧迫可能造成灾难性后果至关重要 156 00:07:45,899 --> 00:07:48,723 即时性的弱点平衡往往比长期 157 00:07:48,736 --> 00:07:51,899 实力对比更具决定性正因如此 158 00:07:52,312 --> 00:07:54,711 小型公司和个人有时能在谈判 159 00:07:54,711 --> 00:07:57,399 中胜过规模更大的对手尤其是 160 00:07:57,412 --> 00:08:00,512 在新兴市场和技术领域当实力 161 00:08:00,512 --> 00:08:03,187 雄厚的大型组织认定自己必须获得 162 00:08:03,211 --> 00:08:05,836 某项炫酷新技术或其他资源时 163 00:08:06,211 --> 00:08:08,336 往往会允许自己付出远超合理 164 00:08:08,336 --> 00:08:10,687 范围的代价财经媒体的报道中 165 00:08:10,925 --> 00:08:14,223 这类案例早已屡见不鲜力量的失衡 166 00:08:14,312 --> 00:08:17,162 也是为何英国农民完全受制于超市 167 00:08:17,162 --> 00:08:19,961 连锁巨头的原因同样解释了为何 168 00:08:19,973 --> 00:08:22,149 英国民众在多数食品上的花费 169 00:08:22,250 --> 00:08:25,687 远超欧洲其他国家英国食物并非 170 00:08:25,699 --> 00:08:28,711 更优质实际上其品质略逊于 171 00:08:28,736 --> 00:08:30,736 法国等地的食品但在利用 172 00:08:30,762 --> 00:08:34,098 弱势平衡方面英国超市无疑是行家里手 173 00:08:34,674 --> 00:08:37,812 农民们缺乏议价能力而超市连锁 174 00:08:37,924 --> 00:08:40,824 却深谙谈判之道超市拥有 175 00:08:40,848 --> 00:08:43,699 充沛现金流与多元供应渠道农民 176 00:08:43,711 --> 00:08:45,986 却要急着修理故障拖拉机并 177 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:49,787 支付兽医账单弱势的天平严重倾向 178 00:08:49,812 --> 00:08:53,625 农民一方除非中央政府介入否则结局早已 179 00:08:53,636 --> 00:08:56,973 注定超市有一个微小的弱点非常 180 00:08:56,986 --> 00:08:59,848 微小它们需要定期且大批量地 181 00:08:59,875 --> 00:09:03,787 采购食品并且要求品质和稳定性如果 182 00:09:03,799 --> 00:09:07,086 食品变得稀缺平衡将被打破农民 183 00:09:07,098 --> 00:09:10,848 将开始重击超市但眼下农民毫无 184 00:09:10,861 --> 00:09:13,836 胜算有太多来源持续提供着 185 00:09:13,861 --> 00:09:16,636 质量尚可的食品而我们的政府 186 00:09:16,636 --> 00:09:20,086 选择不予干预在美国关于沃尔玛的 187 00:09:20,111 --> 00:09:22,236 几本书中可以找到一个绝佳的 188 00:09:22,250 --> 00:09:25,211 例子既体现了弱点平衡原则又 189 00:09:25,211 --> 00:09:27,711 与之相悖沃尔玛可以说是世界 190 00:09:27,711 --> 00:09:29,973 上最大的企业它无疑是全球 191 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:32,836 最大的零售商其采购经理们养成 192 00:09:32,836 --> 00:09:35,211 了一种习惯既让现有和潜在 193 00:09:35,211 --> 00:09:37,424 的供应商感到困扰又让沃尔玛 194 00:09:37,437 --> 00:09:40,699 自身获利丰厚沃尔玛不仅坚持要求供应 195 00:09:40,699 --> 00:09:43,037 商提供极具竞争力的价格这 196 00:09:43,049 --> 00:09:45,024 可以说是美国所有管理政策中 197 00:09:45,136 --> 00:09:47,598 惠及消费者最多的一项有时还 198 00:09:47,611 --> 00:09:50,500 坚持要求供应商无论如何都要达到 199 00:09:50,524 --> 00:09:52,674 沃尔玛的定价标准无论这对供应 200 00:09:52,674 --> 00:09:55,274 商或制造商造成多大成本压力 201 00:09:55,848 --> 00:09:58,162 这一做法促使一家知名割草 202 00:09:58,162 --> 00:10:00,824 机品牌的首席执行官做出了极其勇敢 203 00:10:00,824 --> 00:10:03,912 的决定令整个园艺机械行业震惊 204 00:10:03,912 --> 00:10:06,899 的是他毅然将全线产品撤出 205 00:10:06,924 --> 00:10:10,486 沃尔玛货架瞬间牺牲了数百万美元的销售 206 00:10:10,486 --> 00:10:13,625 总额他疯了吗为何要这样 207 00:10:13,625 --> 00:10:16,100 做因为他想明白了三件事 208 00:10:16,662 --> 00:10:19,850 首先他只有通过降低机械质量才能 209 00:10:19,850 --> 00:10:22,187 满足沃尔玛对其公司的价格要求 210 00:10:22,549 --> 00:10:25,100 而这些机械将不得不在国外而 211 00:10:25,100 --> 00:10:27,850 非美国本土生产一旦他这么做 212 00:10:27,850 --> 00:10:30,362 了他就可能永远受制于沃尔玛 213 00:10:30,937 --> 00:10:33,912 其次在挑剔的消费者眼中他 214 00:10:33,924 --> 00:10:37,250 公司的声誉可能会受损换句话说 215 00:10:37,625 --> 00:10:40,112 即使通过沃尔玛销售他新推出的 216 00:10:40,136 --> 00:10:43,899 廉价产品使利润暂时增加他的 217 00:10:43,912 --> 00:10:46,511 公司和品牌资产价值仍可能受 218 00:10:46,511 --> 00:10:49,761 损第三他知道还有另一种 219 00:10:49,774 --> 00:10:53,375 选择美国各地仍存在大量独立的 220 00:10:53,399 --> 00:10:56,824 园艺机械零售商通过将营销和销售 221 00:10:56,836 --> 00:10:58,924 精力集中在这类独立渠道上 222 00:10:59,287 --> 00:11:01,287 他可以在保持品牌在质量上 223 00:11:01,287 --> 00:11:04,511 的领导地位的同时发展公司而且 224 00:11:04,511 --> 00:11:06,761 他的策略也奏效了这一切 225 00:11:06,761 --> 00:11:09,487 的是非对错并不重要如果 226 00:11:09,487 --> 00:11:12,211 我能像英国超市和沃尔玛那样安排 227 00:11:12,237 --> 00:11:14,850 杂志出版和互联网网站业务我会 228 00:11:14,875 --> 00:11:16,961 毫不犹豫地这样做前提是我是 229 00:11:16,975 --> 00:11:20,711 一家超市而不是农民或者看看银行 230 00:11:20,725 --> 00:11:23,062 对初创公司或小型企业的态度 231 00:11:23,636 --> 00:11:25,312 如果你因为发不出工资而 232 00:11:25,324 --> 00:11:27,500 需要贷款几乎可以肯定你拿不 233 00:11:27,500 --> 00:11:30,875 到呃应该说你绝对肯定拿 234 00:11:30,875 --> 00:11:33,699 不到弱势地位的悬殊如此明显 235 00:11:33,799 --> 00:11:37,049 且迫在眉睫没有人会愿意浪费时间听 236 00:11:37,049 --> 00:11:39,324 你的恳求但如果你需要贷款 237 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:42,287 比如说因为你希望将一家私营公司 238 00:11:42,399 --> 00:11:45,699 在不久的将来成功上市换句话说你 239 00:11:45,711 --> 00:11:48,187 并非真的需要贷款只是获得贷款 240 00:11:48,299 --> 00:11:50,386 会更为便利那么贷款就会像 241 00:11:50,412 --> 00:11:54,261 五彩纸屑般向你纷至沓来毕竟银行 242 00:11:54,274 --> 00:11:56,886 需要通过销售专业服务以及收取利息 243 00:11:56,912 --> 00:11:58,899 来赚钱而你现在是一位 244 00:11:58,924 --> 00:12:01,324 潜在的重要客户一个很可能需要 245 00:12:01,324 --> 00:12:03,424 这些专业服务的客户而不是一个 246 00:12:03,537 --> 00:12:06,737 捧着破旧商业计划书卑躬屈膝的乞求 247 00:12:06,737 --> 00:12:06,975 者 248 00:12:07,100 --> 00:12:09,975 大象与跳蚤如果这一切让你 249 00:12:09,986 --> 00:12:12,062 觉得资本的控制者就像是 250 00:12:12,086 --> 00:12:14,562 丛林中的十吨重大象那么你的感觉 251 00:12:14,575 --> 00:12:17,899 没错但事情还有另一面你的 252 00:12:17,912 --> 00:12:20,312 小公司或许只是企业大象领地中 253 00:12:20,312 --> 00:12:22,424 的一只跳蚤甚至是他直到 254 00:12:22,437 --> 00:12:24,948 最近才勉强注意到的存在但 255 00:12:24,948 --> 00:12:26,875 这头大象愿意付出多少代价来 256 00:12:26,886 --> 00:12:30,236 摆脱你或是收购你呢尤其是当 257 00:12:30,236 --> 00:12:31,912 你的业务虽小却在不断 258 00:12:31,912 --> 00:12:35,225 壮大而大象的业务却停滞不前时 259 00:12:35,787 --> 00:12:38,000 因为大象有一位主人一位 260 00:12:38,024 --> 00:12:40,261 驯象师而他的主人是个 261 00:12:40,287 --> 00:12:42,825 冷酷无情的家伙手持带刺的 262 00:12:42,836 --> 00:12:45,711 铁棍和猎象枪他还有个更 263 00:12:45,711 --> 00:12:49,037 广为人知的名字机构投资者所有 264 00:12:49,062 --> 00:12:51,412 初创企业家每晚都该为这些神奇 265 00:12:51,412 --> 00:12:54,548 的生物机构投资者祈祷亲爱的上帝 266 00:12:54,787 --> 00:12:56,875 感谢您感谢大公司里的机构 267 00:12:56,886 --> 00:13:00,350 投资者机构投资者通常指养老基金或 268 00:13:00,361 --> 00:13:02,886 储蓄公司这个术语就是指那些 269 00:13:02,899 --> 00:13:07,125 持有上市公司大量股份的实体那么为什么 270 00:13:07,700 --> 00:13:10,950 为什么你要为他们祈祷大型企业中 271 00:13:10,950 --> 00:13:13,761 的机构投资者与培养企业家严肃谈判 272 00:13:13,761 --> 00:13:17,200 技巧并致富有什么关系一切我 273 00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:20,625 的朋友一切因为大象必须向主人 274 00:13:20,636 --> 00:13:23,149 展示自己是一头与时俱进的大象 275 00:13:23,724 --> 00:13:26,787 一头精明的大象一头能预知丛林 276 00:13:26,798 --> 00:13:29,961 领地中即将发生什么下一件大事 277 00:13:30,086 --> 00:13:33,111 会是什么的大象否则它就要冒着 278 00:13:33,136 --> 00:13:35,386 股价下跌的风险被那根可恶 279 00:13:35,386 --> 00:13:37,761 的铁棍伤害甚至被凶猛的机构 280 00:13:37,774 --> 00:13:40,136 投资者射杀然后他们会换一头 281 00:13:40,162 --> 00:13:42,361 新大象任由旧象的尸骨 282 00:13:42,461 --> 00:13:45,861 在丛林地面上腐烂现在你有 283 00:13:45,861 --> 00:13:47,761 了一个想法你与你的小 284 00:13:47,761 --> 00:13:50,162 团队一起培育它如今它已成为 285 00:13:50,173 --> 00:13:53,011 现实尽管还很微小更妙的 286 00:13:53,011 --> 00:13:56,111 是它看起来已经在运作或者很快 287 00:13:56,111 --> 00:13:58,673 就能成功大象担心它的主人 288 00:13:58,673 --> 00:14:00,474 会听说这只小跳蚤的想法 289 00:14:00,761 --> 00:14:03,187 而自己可能会因为没有先想到 290 00:14:03,274 --> 00:14:06,825 而受到惩罚要知道大多数大象都 291 00:14:06,825 --> 00:14:09,836 有些懒惰大象明白自己必须做什么 292 00:14:10,399 --> 00:14:12,662 于是它笨重地走过来与你 293 00:14:12,662 --> 00:14:15,386 见面它以前已经这样做过很多次 294 00:14:15,662 --> 00:14:19,861 与许多其他跳蚤打过交道因此大象来到 295 00:14:19,886 --> 00:14:22,511 跳蚤面前并非出于自愿在它那 296 00:14:22,537 --> 00:14:25,011 庞大而官僚的内心深处它其实 297 00:14:25,024 --> 00:14:27,324 希望一切保持不变通常是因为 298 00:14:27,324 --> 00:14:29,136 它害怕它的驯象师胜过 299 00:14:29,149 --> 00:14:32,937 它鄙视跳蚤而且公平地说有时 300 00:14:32,949 --> 00:14:35,324 也是因为大象和我们其他人一样 301 00:14:35,424 --> 00:14:39,037 充满好奇心但永远不要忘记他最初为何 302 00:14:39,037 --> 00:14:41,473 而来他并不爱你他 303 00:14:41,486 --> 00:14:44,687 并非你的朋友尽管他可能假装是他 304 00:14:44,699 --> 00:14:46,662 或许并不恨你甚至对你 305 00:14:46,674 --> 00:14:49,836 怀有几分欣赏他必定会奉承你 306 00:14:50,399 --> 00:14:52,836 但请记住他是被迫而来 307 00:14:53,386 --> 00:14:56,361 是恐惧驱使他对他主子机构 308 00:14:56,375 --> 00:14:59,636 投资者的恐惧而当他真正到来 309 00:14:59,636 --> 00:15:02,723 的那一天欢呼吧当他打 310 00:15:02,723 --> 00:15:05,412 出那通令他深恶痛绝的电话时 311 00:15:05,625 --> 00:15:08,799 是令他厌恶请注意便是好戏开场 312 00:15:08,812 --> 00:15:12,324 之日此刻娴熟的谈判技巧与 313 00:15:12,324 --> 00:15:14,723 对当下丛林法则中强弱态势的 314 00:15:14,750 --> 00:15:18,024 冷静洞察足以在一夜之间彻底改变你 315 00:15:18,024 --> 00:15:21,074 的人生这种改变将是永恒的 316 00:15:21,636 --> 00:15:24,187 正如它曾改变我的命运让 317 00:15:24,187 --> 00:15:26,486 我们来看几个大象找跳蚤的实例 318 00:15:27,062 --> 00:15:31,162 当然有时跳蚤不得不主动接近大象这种 319 00:15:31,162 --> 00:15:33,336 情况不太妙我们稍后再 320 00:15:33,336 --> 00:15:36,136 谈大象误判了自身需求孩子们 321 00:15:36,424 --> 00:15:38,586 都坐舒服了吗那我们开始 322 00:15:38,586 --> 00:15:42,761 吧那是1981年个人计算机在世界 323 00:15:42,774 --> 00:15:46,011 范围内还是新鲜事物远非如今我们视为 324 00:15:46,037 --> 00:15:48,836 理所当然的日常用品在任何明智的 325 00:15:48,848 --> 00:15:52,399 公司无论规模大小的办公室里它们 326 00:15:52,412 --> 00:15:55,236 几乎不见踪影除非是在那些帮助创造 327 00:15:55,250 --> 00:15:57,486 计算机或为其开发软件的公司 328 00:15:57,486 --> 00:16:00,000 里以及极少数出版相关专业杂志 329 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:03,111 的公司中丹尼斯出版有限公司正是这样 330 00:16:03,125 --> 00:16:06,223 一家小型专业杂志出版公司在英国 331 00:16:06,236 --> 00:16:08,723 拥有几百万英镑的营业额在美国的 332 00:16:08,736 --> 00:16:12,361 市场地位则岌岌可危它的财务状况 333 00:16:12,461 --> 00:16:16,437 摇摇欲坠公司所有者是个贪婪的小跳蚤 334 00:16:16,750 --> 00:16:20,000 决心永不重返监狱也绝不在有生之年 335 00:16:20,098 --> 00:16:22,761 向任何人汇报工作这只跳蚤 336 00:16:22,875 --> 00:16:26,112 已从创办者安杰洛兹戈雷莱茨手中获得 337 00:16:26,112 --> 00:16:28,737 了欧洲首本个人电脑杂志的控股权 338 00:16:29,299 --> 00:16:32,975 该杂志名为个人电脑世界简称PCW 339 00:16:33,549 --> 00:16:36,049 它的规模并不算大安杰洛 340 00:16:36,074 --> 00:16:38,600 与跳蚤还协助筹办了一系列展览 341 00:16:38,975 --> 00:16:41,711 让硬件与软件制造商得以展示最新 342 00:16:41,725 --> 00:16:45,112 产品这些举措有效提升了PCW的 343 00:16:45,125 --> 00:16:49,836 销量与公信力个人电脑世界杂志社已竭尽全力 344 00:16:49,949 --> 00:16:53,112 配备优秀的编辑和撰稿团队由于 345 00:16:53,136 --> 00:16:56,312 竞争对手寥寥无几这项任务比往常 346 00:16:56,336 --> 00:16:59,162 轻松许多该杂志还拥有一流的 347 00:16:59,174 --> 00:17:01,375 设计师和几位极具拼劲的 348 00:17:01,399 --> 00:17:04,686 广告销售人员虽然尚未达到锦衣玉食的 349 00:17:04,699 --> 00:17:08,362 程度但个人电脑世界确实是个令人振奋 350 00:17:08,362 --> 00:17:10,949 的工作平台它所报道的行业 351 00:17:11,061 --> 00:17:13,250 本身就是一个崭新而充满活力 352 00:17:13,250 --> 00:17:16,086 的领域空气中弥漫着技术革命的 353 00:17:16,099 --> 00:17:19,261 硝烟这份杂志正处在革命浪潮 354 00:17:19,261 --> 00:17:22,273 的核心地带全体成员与所有者对 355 00:17:22,273 --> 00:17:26,049 此都了然于心其他杂志跳蚤开始注意 356 00:17:26,049 --> 00:17:28,398 到这一点他们纷纷推出自己 357 00:17:28,398 --> 00:17:31,974 的个人电脑杂志但他们投入不足这些 358 00:17:31,987 --> 00:17:35,961 杂志都不及个人电脑世界出色随着时间 359 00:17:35,961 --> 00:17:39,824 的推移其中大多数杂志要么停刊要么 360 00:17:39,849 --> 00:17:43,398 逐渐凋零这只跳蚤加倍努力通过 361 00:17:43,412 --> 00:17:46,136 出版关于流行音乐和熊猫的一次性 362 00:17:46,162 --> 00:17:49,049 垃圾杂志来获取现金他将这些 363 00:17:49,061 --> 00:17:53,898 资金全部注入个人电脑世界毫无疑问这项 364 00:17:53,912 --> 00:17:56,537 投资决定是跳蚤一生中第二或 365 00:17:56,549 --> 00:17:58,037 第三重要的商业决策 366 00:17:58,099 --> 00:18:00,287 最重要的是这只跳蚤和 367 00:18:00,287 --> 00:18:02,700 他的杂志正顺应潮流而行 368 00:18:03,086 --> 00:18:07,386 而非逆流而上个人电脑世界随着市场一同 369 00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:10,375 成长每期都有更多读者加入 370 00:18:10,936 --> 00:18:13,875 广告也开始增多而且是大幅增长 371 00:18:14,436 --> 00:18:18,511 安杰洛兹戈雷莱茨和跳蚤都为此深感自豪 372 00:18:19,061 --> 00:18:22,574 随后灾难降临这只跳蚤愚蠢地 373 00:18:22,599 --> 00:18:25,186 创办了一份流行音乐周刊他 374 00:18:25,186 --> 00:18:28,287 开始相信自己能创造奇迹这份周刊 375 00:18:28,311 --> 00:18:30,936 起初获得成功随后却演变成一 376 00:18:30,936 --> 00:18:34,298 场可怕的吞噬现金的灾难跳蚤 377 00:18:34,325 --> 00:18:37,011 陷入恐慌甚至考虑将小公司的 378 00:18:37,037 --> 00:18:40,298 一半股权出售给友好合作伙伴商业 379 00:18:40,311 --> 00:18:43,849 术语称之为白衣骑士幸运的是这笔 380 00:18:43,849 --> 00:18:47,023 交易最终告吹因为合作方要求他 381 00:18:47,136 --> 00:18:50,086 立即停刊流行音乐周刊而跳蚤既 382 00:18:50,099 --> 00:18:53,075 缺乏勇气也缺乏智慧做出这个决定 383 00:18:53,636 --> 00:18:57,125 当白衣骑士们转身离去时灭顶之灾已 384 00:18:57,125 --> 00:18:59,825 在这家小公司眼前浮现公司产生 385 00:18:59,825 --> 00:19:02,650 的现金流根本不足以喂养PCW 386 00:19:02,875 --> 00:19:04,673 这头日益庞大的吞金巨 387 00:19:04,673 --> 00:19:08,311 兽跳蚤关闭了流行音乐周刊他 388 00:19:08,311 --> 00:19:11,500 是被迫的纯粹是运气使然他 389 00:19:11,500 --> 00:19:13,473 的固执让他没有卖掉公司 390 00:19:13,500 --> 00:19:16,223 一半的股份但资金短缺的阴影 391 00:19:16,325 --> 00:19:19,836 依然逼近你必须记住跳蚤仍然是个 392 00:19:19,862 --> 00:19:23,750 贪婪的小家伙渴望尽早成为百万富翁一 393 00:19:23,750 --> 00:19:25,598 位高大和蔼的男子找到了他 394 00:19:25,950 --> 00:19:27,912 这位男子与他的搭档共同 395 00:19:27,923 --> 00:19:31,500 帮助建立了EMAP东米德兰联合出版社 396 00:19:31,673 --> 00:19:34,625 这是英国最大的杂志巨头之一他 397 00:19:34,625 --> 00:19:37,836 的名字叫大卫大卫和跳蚤进行 398 00:19:37,836 --> 00:19:41,086 了多次会面后来大卫和他的 399 00:19:41,098 --> 00:19:43,211 搭档罗宾会成为跳蚤的好朋友 400 00:19:43,761 --> 00:19:46,400 但现在不是谈友谊的时候现在 401 00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:49,450 是严肃谈判的时刻大卫和罗宾 402 00:19:49,450 --> 00:19:51,848 是杂志界的传奇人物他们在 403 00:19:51,875 --> 00:19:55,836 性格和外貌上截然相反大卫温文尔雅 404 00:19:56,025 --> 00:19:59,423 身形清瘦个子很高待人友善且 405 00:19:59,436 --> 00:20:02,473 毫无攻击性你不必询问就能 406 00:20:02,473 --> 00:20:05,098 看出他受过高等教育他本可以 407 00:20:05,112 --> 00:20:07,811 成为一流的外交官他深谙从 408 00:20:07,824 --> 00:20:11,287 跳蚤市场发掘珍品的门道我记得自己 409 00:20:11,311 --> 00:20:13,461 第一次品尝到像样的葡萄酒就是 410 00:20:13,473 --> 00:20:17,211 和大卫一起罗宾则脾气古怪才华横溢 411 00:20:17,375 --> 00:20:19,862 有时性情暴躁他对愚钝之人 412 00:20:19,886 --> 00:20:23,336 毫无耐心但对杂志行业了如指掌深受 413 00:20:23,348 --> 00:20:25,987 EMAP集团员工的敬重他不愿把 414 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,775 时间浪费在餐厅应酬和奉承客户 415 00:20:29,211 --> 00:20:32,674 更别说应付跳蚤商贩初次见面时我 416 00:20:32,674 --> 00:20:34,650 对他并无好感不过在往后 417 00:20:34,650 --> 00:20:36,750 的岁月里我会越来越欣赏他 418 00:20:37,311 --> 00:20:39,711 大卫察觉到了这点便让罗宾 419 00:20:39,737 --> 00:20:43,650 暂避锋芒大卫与跳蚤就PCW可能 420 00:20:43,662 --> 00:20:45,799 出售给EMAP一事进行了一 421 00:20:45,799 --> 00:20:48,723 场激烈的拉锯战跳蚤咨询了税务 422 00:20:48,723 --> 00:20:51,723 顾问安杰洛和律师还与美国那边 423 00:20:51,723 --> 00:20:55,299 的白衣骑士合伙人通了气谈判愈演愈烈 424 00:20:55,525 --> 00:20:58,949 跳蚤意识到尽管大卫表面一如既往地镇定 425 00:20:59,275 --> 00:21:02,775 内心却急于尽快达成交易在伦敦 426 00:21:02,775 --> 00:21:04,824 市中心跳蚤的公寓里举行了一 427 00:21:04,824 --> 00:21:08,049 场关键会议大卫差一点就要说服跳蚤 428 00:21:08,074 --> 00:21:11,961 立即出售PCW差一点就要以180万美元 429 00:21:11,973 --> 00:21:15,025 左右的价格握手成交这对一本新 430 00:21:15,025 --> 00:21:19,074 杂志来说堪称天价别忘了跳蚤 431 00:21:19,098 --> 00:21:21,973 可是个贪得无厌的家伙但正如先前 432 00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:24,449 是傻运气救了跳蚤这次则 433 00:21:24,449 --> 00:21:27,299 是本能挽救了他那种本能加上 434 00:21:27,324 --> 00:21:30,162 白衣骑士们和其他人的建议更 435 00:21:30,162 --> 00:21:33,150 何况在这次会面中大象经理眼 436 00:21:33,150 --> 00:21:35,737 中闪烁的微妙光芒让跳蚤颇 437 00:21:35,737 --> 00:21:38,162 感不适他提出了更高要价 438 00:21:38,525 --> 00:21:41,186 这令大卫大为光火而这一次 439 00:21:41,511 --> 00:21:43,662 对方的恼怒也毫不掩饰地表露 440 00:21:43,662 --> 00:21:46,723 了出来几周来这只跳蚤一直 441 00:21:46,723 --> 00:21:49,150 在思忖是否因自己的贪婪与 442 00:21:49,162 --> 00:21:52,125 天真毁掉了获救的机会或许他 443 00:21:52,125 --> 00:21:55,223 把大象逼得太紧了身边确实有人持 444 00:21:55,237 --> 00:21:58,924 这种看法但实际情况是EMAP大象的 445 00:21:58,936 --> 00:22:01,261 管理层一直在与其他跳蚤接触 446 00:22:01,824 --> 00:22:04,237 他们认为能用低于260万美元的 447 00:22:04,250 --> 00:22:07,237 价格获得与PCW极其相似的东西 448 00:22:07,799 --> 00:22:11,049 这一次EMAP大象错误判断了双方 449 00:22:11,049 --> 00:22:14,299 的强弱态势低估了自身需求这个 450 00:22:14,311 --> 00:22:16,849 失误将在未来数年让它付出 451 00:22:16,875 --> 00:22:20,349 沉重代价因为不久之后这只跳蚤 452 00:22:20,375 --> 00:22:23,511 就会出售PCW但绝不是180万 453 00:22:23,511 --> 00:22:27,311 美元远远不止接下来要讲述的正是 454 00:22:27,324 --> 00:22:29,449 这笔交易的达成过程与最终 455 00:22:29,461 --> 00:22:32,862 价格丛林里从不缺大象任何丛林 456 00:22:32,862 --> 00:22:35,449 里都不止一头大象这实在 457 00:22:35,449 --> 00:22:38,148 是幸事当丛林里只有一头 458 00:22:38,162 --> 00:22:41,561 大象时跳蚤几乎毫无胜算垄断者 459 00:22:41,586 --> 00:22:45,061 与创业者从来水火不容在与大卫在 460 00:22:45,074 --> 00:22:48,074 跳蚤公寓那次命运攸关的会面后不久又 461 00:22:48,074 --> 00:22:50,537 一头大象前来拜访这是一头名 462 00:22:50,537 --> 00:22:53,250 为VNU的荷兰大象在欧洲各地 463 00:22:53,273 --> 00:22:55,836 都有据点这头巨兽在各类 464 00:22:55,849 --> 00:22:58,686 杂志出版领域经验丰富在英国拥有 465 00:22:58,711 --> 00:23:01,398 庞大的企业级业务旗下包括服务 466 00:23:01,398 --> 00:23:04,186 于大型传统小型机及大型机部门的 467 00:23:04,211 --> 00:23:07,549 专业杂志照例的寒暄与商业试探 468 00:23:07,574 --> 00:23:10,862 如期展开跳蚤开始享受高级餐厅的 469 00:23:10,886 --> 00:23:13,674 午餐与美酒尤其当无需自掏腰包 470 00:23:13,674 --> 00:23:16,224 时但跳蚤也学会了不为 471 00:23:16,237 --> 00:23:18,574 奉承所动始终紧盯对方的 472 00:23:18,586 --> 00:23:21,662 软肋这头特殊的大象怀有近乎 473 00:23:21,686 --> 00:23:25,061 独一无二的迫切需求而跳蚤决心要 474 00:23:25,074 --> 00:23:28,561 充分利用这一点跳蚤怀疑大型计算机 475 00:23:28,574 --> 00:23:32,787 设备将永远存在但个人电脑也就是后来 476 00:23:32,811 --> 00:23:35,125 被称为台式机的设备才是未来的 477 00:23:35,136 --> 00:23:37,561 趋势它们与需要穿白大褂的 478 00:23:37,561 --> 00:23:40,086 人操作占据整个小房间大小的 479 00:23:40,099 --> 00:23:43,162 主机和系统完全不同如果这头 480 00:23:43,186 --> 00:23:45,511 老迈的荷兰大象错过了即将到来 481 00:23:45,511 --> 00:23:47,750 的台式机潮流它的驯象 482 00:23:47,750 --> 00:23:50,500 师会特别生气这正是它独特 483 00:23:50,500 --> 00:23:53,474 的弱点而且它是如此庞大的 484 00:23:53,487 --> 00:23:55,324 一头象而它的驯象 485 00:23:55,324 --> 00:23:59,162 师又是如此严厉的主人当然跳蚤 486 00:23:59,186 --> 00:24:01,273 也有一个弱点一个我们已经知道的 487 00:24:01,287 --> 00:24:05,487 弱点它非常缺钱而且贪婪跳蚤 488 00:24:05,511 --> 00:24:07,461 能否在资金短缺的情况下生存 489 00:24:07,461 --> 00:24:10,424 下来并足够长久地克制它年轻 490 00:24:10,424 --> 00:24:14,037 的贪婪孩子们你们会问足够 491 00:24:14,049 --> 00:24:15,487 长久是为了什么 492 00:24:16,099 --> 00:24:18,386 足够长久到让这头荷兰大象 493 00:24:18,511 --> 00:24:21,737 变得真正真正地绝望它能做到 494 00:24:21,737 --> 00:24:25,011 吗这是跳蚤的计划他的专业 495 00:24:25,011 --> 00:24:28,250 顾问们憎恶这个计划这很愚蠢 496 00:24:28,811 --> 00:24:30,875 一只跳蚤怎能与大象比 497 00:24:30,886 --> 00:24:34,375 耐力但事实上它可以你要知道 498 00:24:34,674 --> 00:24:36,824 短时间内它可以而在此 499 00:24:36,824 --> 00:24:40,261 期间跳蚤的杂志正顺风顺水每期 500 00:24:40,273 --> 00:24:44,011 发行量不断增长广告收入持续增加这 501 00:24:44,011 --> 00:24:47,199 位跳蚤甚至将个人计算机世界的澳大利亚 502 00:24:47,199 --> 00:24:49,700 版授权给一位度假时信步 503 00:24:49,711 --> 00:24:52,487 走进他办公室的年轻人这位年轻人 504 00:24:52,599 --> 00:24:56,200 后来因此成为百万富翁整个市场一直在 505 00:24:56,211 --> 00:24:58,673 扩张而荷兰大象的驯象人 506 00:24:58,673 --> 00:25:02,162 心情却愈发糟糕荷兰大象的首次 507 00:25:02,173 --> 00:25:05,112 报价完全合理是一位名叫 508 00:25:05,136 --> 00:25:07,461 弗朗西斯的和善荷兰人在午餐时 509 00:25:07,474 --> 00:25:10,761 提出的我们可以出价260万美元他 510 00:25:10,761 --> 00:25:13,162 推了推眼镜说道跳蚤直视他 511 00:25:13,162 --> 00:25:15,273 的双眼沉默以对再加 512 00:25:15,287 --> 00:25:18,773 一点比如五十万美元我们将作为预留款项 513 00:25:18,974 --> 00:25:21,862 根据个人计算机世界未来一年左右的 514 00:25:21,862 --> 00:25:24,375 表现支付给您这是一个相当优厚 515 00:25:24,375 --> 00:25:27,136 的报价几乎是EMAP那头大象 516 00:25:27,162 --> 00:25:30,287 出价的两倍但跳蚤判断这头 517 00:25:30,311 --> 00:25:33,525 荷兰大象还不够迫切他彬彬有礼地 518 00:25:33,525 --> 00:25:35,500 婉拒了提议又给自己斟 519 00:25:35,500 --> 00:25:38,362 了一杯醇美的葡萄酒弗朗西斯明智 520 00:25:38,362 --> 00:25:40,848 地不再纠缠此事他是位年长 521 00:25:40,848 --> 00:25:43,848 的谈判者经验老道且礼数周全 522 00:25:44,423 --> 00:25:46,875 几周后荷兰大象带来了另一 523 00:25:46,875 --> 00:25:49,287 位经理人这位名叫格雷姆的 524 00:25:49,311 --> 00:25:51,836 英国经理立刻赢得了跳蚤的好感 525 00:25:52,412 --> 00:25:54,561 但跳蚤谨慎地掩饰着自己的 526 00:25:54,575 --> 00:25:57,287 好恶这些经理人本就不是来讨喜 527 00:25:57,287 --> 00:25:59,525 的他们是来谈判的若有 528 00:25:59,525 --> 00:26:03,098 机会更要狠狠宰割跳蚤毕竟这 529 00:26:03,098 --> 00:26:05,250 就是他们领薪水的价值也是 530 00:26:05,261 --> 00:26:07,525 驯象人对他们的期许在 531 00:26:07,548 --> 00:26:09,950 荷兰大象豪华的办公室里举行了 532 00:26:09,961 --> 00:26:12,537 一场重要会议跳蚤只带了 533 00:26:12,548 --> 00:26:15,186 他的律师迈克尔出席在此次会议 534 00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:18,112 之前荷兰大象曾试图派使者与 535 00:26:18,125 --> 00:26:21,723 PCW的小股东安杰洛兹戈雷莱克接触这 536 00:26:21,723 --> 00:26:24,086 让跳蚤十分愤怒谈判者只能有 537 00:26:24,086 --> 00:26:28,436 一个任何分裂的阵营终将溃败跳蚤 538 00:26:28,461 --> 00:26:30,961 早已嘱咐安杰洛不要理会荷兰大象的 539 00:26:30,973 --> 00:26:35,223 爪牙安杰洛也欣然应允会议上跳蚤 540 00:26:35,237 --> 00:26:37,973 掩饰着内心的怒火这是个关键 541 00:26:37,973 --> 00:26:41,049 的日子他心知今日不会成为决胜 542 00:26:41,061 --> 00:26:44,223 之日因为荷兰大象尚未陷入绝境 543 00:26:44,787 --> 00:26:48,787 但无论如何这仍是至关重要的一天跳蚤 544 00:26:48,811 --> 00:26:50,924 已经提醒他的律师迈克尔要把 545 00:26:50,949 --> 00:26:53,737 所有业务文件都放在手边随时 546 00:26:53,737 --> 00:26:56,900 准备突然立即离开迈克尔对此感到 547 00:26:56,912 --> 00:26:59,961 不快他是个精明体贴的人也是 548 00:26:59,987 --> 00:27:02,775 跳蚤的朋友但他不是谈判专家 549 00:27:03,186 --> 00:27:05,400 而跳蚤是他的客户他会 550 00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:07,987 按要求行事这正是他专业的 551 00:27:07,987 --> 00:27:10,787 地方桌边坐着几位来自荷兰 552 00:27:10,787 --> 00:27:13,811 大象公司的经理可能还有一两位律师 553 00:27:13,836 --> 00:27:17,875 或会计师很难分辨会议开始对方提出 554 00:27:17,875 --> 00:27:20,875 了新的报价这个报价几乎完全 555 00:27:20,886 --> 00:27:24,211 如跳蚤所料超过五百万美元其中一 556 00:27:24,211 --> 00:27:26,598 大笔钱被预留这是个极好 557 00:27:26,598 --> 00:27:30,612 的报价绝对棒极了是EMAP 558 00:27:30,625 --> 00:27:34,636 大象公司之前报价的三倍有一阵子跳蚤 559 00:27:34,662 --> 00:27:37,924 没有回应相反他谈论着杂志的 560 00:27:37,949 --> 00:27:41,348 运营情况澳大利亚版的发展以及展览 561 00:27:41,362 --> 00:27:44,362 业务的增长他还提到很快将 562 00:27:44,362 --> 00:27:47,049 至少再推出一本个人电脑杂志这次的 563 00:27:47,061 --> 00:27:50,973 目标是个人电脑行业本身面向销售个人电脑 564 00:27:51,086 --> 00:27:53,711 和个人电脑软件的公司这将是 565 00:27:53,723 --> 00:27:56,775 一本企业对企业杂志正是荷兰大象 566 00:27:56,799 --> 00:28:00,025 所擅长的类型最终讨论回到了 567 00:28:00,037 --> 00:28:03,299 报价上跳蚤直视着格雷姆和弗朗西斯 568 00:28:03,299 --> 00:28:05,848 的眼睛他完全忽略了在场的 569 00:28:05,875 --> 00:28:09,025 其他人他清空自己的思绪目光 570 00:28:09,049 --> 00:28:12,449 穿透他们他让自己相信不在乎这些 571 00:28:12,461 --> 00:28:15,723 谈判的结果如何在谈判时他 572 00:28:15,737 --> 00:28:19,086 紧紧抓住这种空洞的幻觉他不在乎 573 00:28:19,199 --> 00:28:22,386 自己是否会成为百万富翁价格是780万 574 00:28:22,386 --> 00:28:25,924 美元他说而且只有十二分之一可以留 575 00:28:25,924 --> 00:28:29,761 作保证金这就是价格不会改变桌 576 00:28:29,761 --> 00:28:32,949 边一片惊愕真假难辨跳蚤向 577 00:28:32,949 --> 00:28:35,349 他的律师点了点头律师收 578 00:28:35,349 --> 00:28:38,273 起文件放入公文包两人起身 579 00:28:38,299 --> 00:28:41,037 准备离开就在他们即将离开时 580 00:28:41,311 --> 00:28:44,148 跳蚤再次凝视着那两位荷兰大象 581 00:28:44,162 --> 00:28:47,211 经理他的眼神和思绪如同僵尸 582 00:28:47,211 --> 00:28:49,936 般空洞感谢你们的出价先生们 583 00:28:50,237 --> 00:28:52,811 他说如我所说价格是 584 00:28:52,836 --> 00:28:56,549 780万美元其中仅65万美元作为第三方 585 00:28:56,561 --> 00:29:00,987 托管此外个人电脑世界的买家必须允许 586 00:29:01,074 --> 00:29:03,174 我向行业发行新的计算机杂志 587 00:29:03,750 --> 00:29:05,836 如果短期内没有收到你们的回复 588 00:29:06,261 --> 00:29:08,849 我的下一次报价将超过一千万美元 589 00:29:09,424 --> 00:29:12,237 下午好我们走进苏豪区的阳光中 590 00:29:12,474 --> 00:29:15,000 在街边咖啡馆驻足我舀糖 591 00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:18,886 时双手颤抖迈克尔也是如此你疯 592 00:29:18,886 --> 00:29:21,199 了我的朋友他摇着头 593 00:29:21,224 --> 00:29:24,061 低语道彻底疯了更糟的 594 00:29:24,061 --> 00:29:27,250 是你做了蠢事他们不会支付 595 00:29:27,273 --> 00:29:31,773 那种金额而且你当场离席威胁他们 596 00:29:32,125 --> 00:29:33,987 还提出突然又不合理的要求 597 00:29:34,561 --> 00:29:36,787 难道你真打算创办一本个人电脑贸易 598 00:29:36,799 --> 00:29:40,136 杂志不我承认我只是坐在 599 00:29:40,136 --> 00:29:42,836 那里时临时想到的我根本没有 600 00:29:42,849 --> 00:29:46,011 资金创办任何刊物这你是知道 601 00:29:46,011 --> 00:29:48,862 的我们相对而坐啜饮着咖啡 602 00:29:49,224 --> 00:29:50,862 迈克尔正抽着他铁盒里 603 00:29:50,862 --> 00:29:54,037 的小雪茄讽刺的是那正是荷兰 604 00:29:54,037 --> 00:29:56,886 产的雪茄我结账时当女 605 00:29:56,886 --> 00:29:59,912 侍应生找零的间隙迈克尔作了最后一次 606 00:30:00,023 --> 00:30:03,311 尝试劝我采取理智行动菲利克斯我 607 00:30:03,324 --> 00:30:05,849 既是你的律师也是朋友让我 608 00:30:05,849 --> 00:30:10,299 回去道歉吧两百万英镑是个天文数字在 609 00:30:10,311 --> 00:30:12,449 英国我从没听说过哪本新创 610 00:30:12,449 --> 00:30:15,386 杂志能卖出近五百万美元听我 611 00:30:15,398 --> 00:30:18,237 一句让我回去处理你本人 612 00:30:18,261 --> 00:30:20,787 不必出面我几乎就要让迈克尔这么 613 00:30:20,787 --> 00:30:23,112 做了但某种力量阻止了 614 00:30:23,112 --> 00:30:26,049 我那是一种我能感知却 615 00:30:26,061 --> 00:30:29,799 无法解释或言说的直觉最终我 616 00:30:29,811 --> 00:30:31,974 带着些许自嘲笑了笑拍拍 617 00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:35,461 迈克尔的手臂迈克尔他们的需求会 618 00:30:35,461 --> 00:30:38,362 压倒我的贪婪我对此深信不疑 619 00:30:38,936 --> 00:30:42,449 我们拭目以待吧于是我们继续等待在 620 00:30:42,461 --> 00:30:45,750 揭晓结局之前让我们稍作停顿反思 621 00:30:45,761 --> 00:30:48,924 这段经历跳蚤已经确信大象存在 622 00:30:48,949 --> 00:30:51,523 迫切需求跳蚤学会了无视奉承 623 00:30:52,049 --> 00:30:54,875 跳蚤领悟到谈判桌上大象不可能 624 00:30:54,886 --> 00:30:57,886 成为朋友跳蚤认识到自己并非谈判 625 00:30:57,900 --> 00:31:00,787 高手跳蚤学会了清空自我让自己 626 00:31:00,799 --> 00:31:03,737 相信毫不在意跳蚤通过设定绝不妥协的 627 00:31:03,750 --> 00:31:07,424 底价弥补了技巧不足跳蚤硬起心肠在 628 00:31:07,436 --> 00:31:09,936 价格未达预期时果断离场跳蚤 629 00:31:10,049 --> 00:31:13,011 将非常规因素行业杂志引入谈判 630 00:31:13,023 --> 00:31:16,287 跳蚤已经权衡了贪婪与需求它 631 00:31:16,287 --> 00:31:20,761 认为需求终将胜过贪婪当然你知道 632 00:31:20,787 --> 00:31:23,250 故事的结局我们再次围坐在大 633 00:31:23,250 --> 00:31:25,648 桌旁这次多了许多会计师和 634 00:31:25,662 --> 00:31:29,461 律师最终商定的价格是780万美元 635 00:31:29,773 --> 00:31:33,112 按当时汇率折算第三方托管金额为 636 00:31:33,136 --> 00:31:35,987 65万美元安杰洛拿到了他的 637 00:31:36,011 --> 00:31:39,386 250万美元我的公司获得了剩余 638 00:31:39,386 --> 00:31:42,086 部分我得以创办自己的行业杂志 639 00:31:42,311 --> 00:31:45,224 微观察这本杂志让我得以持续 640 00:31:45,224 --> 00:31:47,523 关注一个崭新且不断增长的市场 641 00:31:47,836 --> 00:31:50,923 同时暂时避开了VNU的势力范围而 642 00:31:50,936 --> 00:31:53,523 荷兰大象得到了什么它获得了 643 00:31:53,537 --> 00:31:56,348 一本出色的杂志这本刊物至今 644 00:31:56,375 --> 00:31:59,223 仍在发行二十四年后的今天依然 645 00:31:59,237 --> 00:32:01,923 盈利他们还说服我帮他们创办 646 00:32:01,923 --> 00:32:04,961 了另外两本个人电脑杂志一本在英国 647 00:32:04,987 --> 00:32:07,461 以失败告终另一本在荷兰则 648 00:32:07,473 --> 00:32:10,723 大获成功最后而且非常巧妙的 649 00:32:10,723 --> 00:32:13,500 是VNU通过销售协议中的竞 650 00:32:13,500 --> 00:32:16,223 业禁止条款让我在个人电脑市场 651 00:32:16,461 --> 00:32:18,362 除了我的行业杂志外被排除 652 00:32:18,362 --> 00:32:21,961 了三年那是至关重要的三年对于 653 00:32:21,987 --> 00:32:25,048 出售资产的人来说竞业禁止条款 654 00:32:25,150 --> 00:32:28,011 可能是个麻烦尽量缩短竞业禁止的 655 00:32:28,025 --> 00:32:31,537 期限那么最初前来接洽的第一头大象 656 00:32:31,650 --> 00:32:35,325 EMAP又如何呢EMAP在个人电脑杂志 657 00:32:35,336 --> 00:32:38,075 业务上从未真正成功过至少在 658 00:32:38,098 --> 00:32:41,423 PCW的势力范围内是如此在几乎 659 00:32:41,423 --> 00:32:44,548 所有其他领域他们都占据并继续 660 00:32:44,561 --> 00:32:48,287 占据主导地位他们在其他领域多次 661 00:32:48,298 --> 00:32:50,612 击败过我但他们错过了与 662 00:32:50,625 --> 00:32:53,737 PCW合作的机会他们低估了自己 663 00:32:53,737 --> 00:32:56,650 的需求并且很可能理所当然地被 664 00:32:56,650 --> 00:32:58,250 这只小跳蚤的贪婪吓退 665 00:32:58,250 --> 00:33:01,636 了我并非责怪他们作为买家而 666 00:33:01,636 --> 00:33:03,936 非卖家我经历过太多次类似 667 00:33:03,949 --> 00:33:06,336 情况以至于连一丝责备的念头 668 00:33:06,362 --> 00:33:09,375 都没有但这仍是个错误倘若 669 00:33:09,386 --> 00:33:11,761 当初大卫在我苏豪区的公寓里 670 00:33:11,875 --> 00:33:14,424 将价码抬到一百万英镑以上我 671 00:33:14,424 --> 00:33:16,537 的贪婪很可能就会占据上风 672 00:33:16,824 --> 00:33:19,473 而安杰洛与我便会错失那 673 00:33:19,487 --> 00:33:22,574 额外的两百万英镑顺带一提按 674 00:33:22,586 --> 00:33:25,924 如今币值计算那两百万英镑相当于六 675 00:33:25,924 --> 00:33:29,636 百万英镑左右因谈判失误而白白损失 676 00:33:29,662 --> 00:33:32,886 这么一大笔钱实在令人扼腕谈判 677 00:33:32,886 --> 00:33:36,199 技巧小贴士谨记绝大多数人都不 678 00:33:36,199 --> 00:33:38,761 擅长细节谈判你的对手也不 679 00:33:38,761 --> 00:33:40,824 例外若你像我一样不擅 680 00:33:40,836 --> 00:33:43,875 谈判请预先设定好愿意支付或 681 00:33:43,886 --> 00:33:46,775 接受的金额上限及附加条件切勿 682 00:33:46,787 --> 00:33:51,112 动摇最初的判断往往最明智大多数 683 00:33:51,125 --> 00:33:54,699 谈判本无必要切勿轻易开启谈判 684 00:33:55,275 --> 00:33:57,862 谨记要塞若愿谈判便已沦陷 685 00:33:57,875 --> 00:34:01,237 一半将严肃谈判留给真正重要的 686 00:34:01,250 --> 00:34:05,511 场合务必做好功课且要严谨细致 687 00:34:06,074 --> 00:34:09,099 在重大谈判中任何未知信息或 688 00:34:09,112 --> 00:34:11,375 疏于查证之处都可能带来致命 689 00:34:11,375 --> 00:34:14,086 后果尽管前文以丛林法则为 690 00:34:14,086 --> 00:34:17,099 例但严肃谈判的成败确实取决于 691 00:34:17,112 --> 00:34:20,800 细节尽可能寻求可信的专业支持但 692 00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:23,186 绝不可将谈判主导权或议程 693 00:34:23,186 --> 00:34:26,775 安排完全交由专业人士掌控最终承担 694 00:34:26,775 --> 00:34:29,550 后果的是你而非他们专业 695 00:34:29,550 --> 00:34:32,362 顾问的职责是阐释与建议而 696 00:34:32,362 --> 00:34:34,925 非替你决策若顾问在谈判 697 00:34:34,925 --> 00:34:37,137 中将你引向违背初衷的方向 698 00:34:37,461 --> 00:34:40,400 应立即叫停并私下告知若其 699 00:34:40,425 --> 00:34:43,487 执意如此你将另寻高明专业 700 00:34:43,487 --> 00:34:46,836 顾问比比皆是永远不要爱上交易本身 701 00:34:47,411 --> 00:34:50,599 交易只是交易总会有其他交易 702 00:34:50,724 --> 00:34:53,974 和其他机会像躲避瘟疫一样避开 703 00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:57,262 商业拍卖除非你是卖家如果你 704 00:34:57,262 --> 00:34:59,936 在拍卖中成为赢家几乎总是会 705 00:34:59,949 --> 00:35:02,862 付出超出理智的代价对面的谈判 706 00:35:02,862 --> 00:35:05,586 者不是你新交的挚友他不是你的 707 00:35:05,599 --> 00:35:09,487 伙伴他不是你的知己除了基本礼节外 708 00:35:09,911 --> 00:35:12,099 你没有义务取悦他或满足他 709 00:35:12,099 --> 00:35:15,161 的要求他是对手如果你不 710 00:35:15,161 --> 00:35:18,036 明白严肃谈判中必然存在真正的 711 00:35:18,061 --> 00:35:21,762 赢家和输家那么无论何种情况你 712 00:35:21,773 --> 00:35:24,711 都将遭受损失不必理会那些让 713 00:35:24,711 --> 00:35:27,050 你把激情和情绪留在谈判室 714 00:35:27,050 --> 00:35:29,324 外的管理手册如果你对某 715 00:35:29,324 --> 00:35:31,949 事充满热情或情绪就让它表现 716 00:35:31,949 --> 00:35:34,574 出来但要用礼貌来调和情绪 717 00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:38,211 如果可能的话再加上几分机智如果 718 00:35:38,211 --> 00:35:40,773 你不擅长幽默那么奉承和自 719 00:35:40,773 --> 00:35:43,875 嘲是不错的替代品在严肃谈判 720 00:35:43,875 --> 00:35:47,411 中要倾听然后继续倾听你不必 721 00:35:47,411 --> 00:35:51,425 着急倾听永远不会让人吃亏同时 722 00:35:51,625 --> 00:35:55,637 将沉默作为武器沉默令人不安人们倾向 723 00:35:55,637 --> 00:35:58,574 于用喋喋不休来填补沉默这往往 724 00:35:58,574 --> 00:36:01,336 会削弱他们的谈判地位选择一个 725 00:36:01,362 --> 00:36:03,911 对己方有利的变数在谈判后期 726 00:36:03,925 --> 00:36:06,800 引入你会惊讶于这一策略 727 00:36:06,898 --> 00:36:09,875 屡试不爽的效果英国人仅凭一个 728 00:36:09,887 --> 00:36:12,237 策略就建立了世界上最大的 729 00:36:12,262 --> 00:36:16,336 地缘政治帝国分而治之只要能够加以利用 730 00:36:16,625 --> 00:36:19,724 这一招永远奏效深入了解对方 731 00:36:20,086 --> 00:36:22,449 其高层管理者的个人策略乃至 732 00:36:22,461 --> 00:36:26,711 目标可能存在细微差异插入楔子持续 733 00:36:26,724 --> 00:36:30,311 敲打绝不容许己方阵营出现此类 734 00:36:30,324 --> 00:36:33,875 弱点我常禁止高管参与谈判正是 735 00:36:33,875 --> 00:36:39,324 为了规避这种陷阱宁可孤军奋战以寡敌众腹背受敌 736 00:36:39,612 --> 00:36:42,449 也胜过两三人暗生龃龉人人 737 00:36:42,461 --> 00:36:45,561 都自诩谈判高手但多数人实则不然 738 00:36:46,137 --> 00:36:48,925 既为掌舵者无论能力高低你 739 00:36:48,925 --> 00:36:51,074 终是最终决策人这不会因 740 00:36:51,074 --> 00:36:53,811 你谈判水平优劣而改变若自 741 00:36:53,811 --> 00:36:57,186 知临场表现欠佳即便身为全权所有者 742 00:36:57,300 --> 00:37:00,012 也不应出席可委派他人代劳 743 00:37:00,286 --> 00:37:02,875 但需事先针对所有潜在情境制定 744 00:37:02,898 --> 00:37:05,750 应对策略此招往往能重创对手 745 00:37:06,175 --> 00:37:10,336 彼得鲍勃与我屡试不爽当然你必须 746 00:37:10,336 --> 00:37:12,849 对委任者报以绝对信任最 747 00:37:12,849 --> 00:37:15,300 重要的是在任何重要谈判中 748 00:37:15,586 --> 00:37:17,936 首先要确定弱势的平衡点在 749 00:37:17,936 --> 00:37:22,349 哪里大多数优势不言而喻尤其是像资金和 750 00:37:22,362 --> 00:37:25,387 基础设施这样的优势而弱点通常 751 00:37:25,387 --> 00:37:28,523 被隐藏起来要找出这些弱点将 752 00:37:28,523 --> 00:37:31,773 其置于光天化日之下并制定作战计划 753 00:37:32,099 --> 00:37:34,137 无论你在谈判中同意什么都 754 00:37:34,137 --> 00:37:37,000 要履行约定没有人愿意与狡猾 755 00:37:37,025 --> 00:37:40,199 或斤斤计较的人做生意两千五百年前的 756 00:37:40,224 --> 00:37:43,686 琐罗亚斯德教经文写道永远不要违背契约 757 00:37:44,112 --> 00:37:46,036 无论你是与虚伪之人还是 758 00:37:46,050 --> 00:37:48,824 正直良知之人订立契约对两者 759 00:37:48,849 --> 00:37:53,273 同样有效无论虚伪还是正直确实如此 760 00:37:53,836 --> 00:37:56,375 关于这个话题我将以英国最 761 00:37:56,375 --> 00:37:59,811 接近马基雅维利的对手弗朗西斯培根的话 762 00:37:59,824 --> 00:38:03,250 作结培根曾通过谈判从相对贫困 763 00:38:03,362 --> 00:38:06,512 攀升至詹姆斯一世时期英格兰财富与权力 764 00:38:06,512 --> 00:38:09,436 的巅峰又失去一切最终在写作 765 00:38:09,461 --> 00:38:12,786 与研究中度过晚年他的随笔 766 00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:16,349 是英语世界迄今最睿智最发人深省 767 00:38:16,625 --> 00:38:19,324 也最犀利的处世指南我至今 768 00:38:19,324 --> 00:38:21,737 仍将其置于枕边这段文字 769 00:38:21,836 --> 00:38:25,387 出自1625年出版的短文论谈判即便 770 00:38:25,398 --> 00:38:27,862 以培根的标准也算简短距今 771 00:38:27,862 --> 00:38:31,875 已近四百年其中字字句句至今依然适用 772 00:38:32,211 --> 00:38:34,586 若要与任何人交涉你必须了解 773 00:38:34,586 --> 00:38:37,411 其性情习惯以引导之或知晓 774 00:38:37,525 --> 00:38:39,673 其目的以说服之或掌握其 775 00:38:39,686 --> 00:38:42,262 弱点短处以威慑之或洞悉其 776 00:38:42,275 --> 00:38:45,112 利益相关者以掌控之与狡黠 777 00:38:45,112 --> 00:38:47,875 者周旋时当始终揣摩其意图 778 00:38:47,987 --> 00:38:50,750 来解读其言辞宜少言且 779 00:38:50,750 --> 00:38:53,275 言其最意想不到之语凡遇 780 00:38:53,298 --> 00:38:57,699 棘手交涉切不可期望立竿见影而应循序渐进 781 00:38:57,923 --> 00:39:01,936 待其事机成熟所幸弗朗西斯培根 782 00:39:02,036 --> 00:39:04,625 未曾与我同时代涉足英国杂志 783 00:39:04,625 --> 00:39:07,811 业若有如此对手同城竞技我 784 00:39:07,811 --> 00:39:09,211 断无可能积累财富