1 00:00:00,050 --> 00:00:02,423 10关于运气的几句话生来就 2 00:00:02,436 --> 00:00:04,224 带着厄运的标记从我学会 3 00:00:04,237 --> 00:00:06,687 爬行起就一直倒霉如果不是因为 4 00:00:06,711 --> 00:00:08,412 厄运缠身我根本就不会有任何 5 00:00:08,425 --> 00:00:12,737 运气布克T琼斯与威廉贝尔生来 6 00:00:12,750 --> 00:00:14,750 厄运怀疑的无敌之虫目睹过 7 00:00:14,775 --> 00:00:17,211 子弹横飞的随军牧师们有时会 8 00:00:17,225 --> 00:00:19,786 夸口说散兵坑里没有无神论者 9 00:00:20,350 --> 00:00:22,836 同样地当生活的子弹在我们 10 00:00:22,850 --> 00:00:25,774 头顶呼啸时我们大多数人都成了 11 00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:29,137 运气的信徒诚然多数时候是秘密 12 00:00:29,149 --> 00:00:32,625 信徒但终究还是信徒世界各大 13 00:00:32,637 --> 00:00:36,137 宗教数个世纪以来不懈努力试图根除信徒 14 00:00:36,137 --> 00:00:38,923 中的迷信那些似乎嘲弄或至少 15 00:00:38,923 --> 00:00:41,875 与神圣经文相悖的信仰体系而 16 00:00:41,887 --> 00:00:44,762 所谓神圣经文不过是超自然教义的另 17 00:00:44,762 --> 00:00:47,637 一种说法在这一点上宗教 18 00:00:47,661 --> 00:00:50,061 竟难得地与哲学家和科学家立场 19 00:00:50,061 --> 00:00:55,125 一致尽管出发点截然不同诚然许多古老迷信 20 00:00:55,225 --> 00:00:57,798 在世界大部分地区已不再具有强大 21 00:00:57,811 --> 00:01:00,737 影响力但面对运气与吉凶预兆 22 00:01:01,100 --> 00:01:04,625 科学家哲学家宗教领袖与智者们的 23 00:01:04,637 --> 00:01:08,712 努力大多徒劳无功不信么你可曾 24 00:01:08,712 --> 00:01:10,950 多少次敲敲木头或许还会 25 00:01:10,974 --> 00:01:13,537 特意起身寻找木料甚至自嘲地 26 00:01:13,561 --> 00:01:15,700 轻叩额头向异教命运之神 27 00:01:15,712 --> 00:01:18,986 致意我敢说次数不少我自己 28 00:01:19,012 --> 00:01:22,387 也常如此认识的大多数人亦然尽管 29 00:01:22,412 --> 00:01:24,724 总带着几分赧然我们都受 30 00:01:24,750 --> 00:01:27,775 命运女神摆布也因此难以摆脱迷信 31 00:01:27,775 --> 00:01:31,162 的桎梏即便听闻南希里根曾坚持 32 00:01:31,174 --> 00:01:34,099 咨询占星师才允许丈夫当时世界 33 00:01:34,099 --> 00:01:36,150 上最具权势的人与苏联 34 00:01:36,162 --> 00:01:38,787 签署裁军协议时我们中有人曾 35 00:01:38,811 --> 00:01:41,236 难以置信地翻过白眼即便当唐宁街 36 00:01:41,250 --> 00:01:44,349 10号再度爆出使用疗愈水晶的古怪 37 00:01:44,361 --> 00:01:47,650 秘闻时我们中有人曾捧腹大笑而 38 00:01:47,662 --> 00:01:51,486 水晶疗法不过是冰山一角我们尽可嘲笑 39 00:01:51,512 --> 00:01:53,775 布莱尔夫人与里根夫人但这条 40 00:01:53,799 --> 00:01:56,549 顽固的疑虑之虫这种有人生而为赢 41 00:01:56,549 --> 00:01:58,650 家有人生而为输家的纠缠 42 00:01:58,662 --> 00:02:02,337 念头这种试图通过仪式祈祷或献祭 43 00:02:02,436 --> 00:02:04,287 来讨好命运女神的冲动这条 44 00:02:04,311 --> 00:02:07,525 永生不灭的蠕虫或多或少都盘踞 45 00:02:07,525 --> 00:02:11,111 在我们大多数人心间那么在追求财富 46 00:02:11,111 --> 00:02:13,550 的道路上我们该如何应对它 47 00:02:13,550 --> 00:02:16,425 呢当然真实的答案是什么也 48 00:02:16,437 --> 00:02:19,887 做不了我们根本无能为力此刻我敲 49 00:02:19,887 --> 00:02:21,687 下的每个字都让我注定 50 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:24,250 要承受那些极少数人恐怕刚才 51 00:02:24,250 --> 00:02:26,736 那个词是弗洛伊德式口误应得 52 00:02:26,736 --> 00:02:29,750 的嘲弄与鄙夷他们始终坚信运气 53 00:02:29,762 --> 00:02:32,137 这类东西根本不存在也不 54 00:02:32,137 --> 00:02:37,062 信宿命更不信幸运女神然而然而 55 00:02:37,300 --> 00:02:39,800 就像你一样我亲眼见证过它的 56 00:02:39,812 --> 00:02:42,512 运作我曾目睹自己的愚行因 57 00:02:42,525 --> 00:02:45,525 一场好运而扭转我曾目瞪口呆 58 00:02:45,525 --> 00:02:47,611 地看着灾祸自我转化成新 59 00:02:47,611 --> 00:02:50,387 的机遇甚至更荒谬地变成一 60 00:02:50,387 --> 00:02:52,973 记全垒打我也见证过真正的 61 00:02:52,986 --> 00:02:55,824 成就与辛勤努力被一连串难以置信的 62 00:02:55,848 --> 00:02:59,098 意外摧毁我得赶紧补充这多半 63 00:02:59,211 --> 00:03:02,199 发生在别人身上刚意识到最后这 64 00:03:02,199 --> 00:03:05,250 七个字是对幸运女神的示好就 65 00:03:05,262 --> 00:03:08,199 留着它们当作赎罪吧接着是 66 00:03:08,223 --> 00:03:10,762 负面运气或伪装成厄运的幸运 67 00:03:11,336 --> 00:03:15,473 八十年代末期当我志大才疏却行事张扬时 68 00:03:15,699 --> 00:03:19,000 在康涅狄格州的小屋里突然病倒后来 69 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:21,675 得知我是在洛杉矶某家酒店 70 00:03:21,775 --> 00:03:24,387 感染了军团病这种由嗜肺 71 00:03:24,387 --> 00:03:26,949 军团菌引发的疾病这种细菌滋生 72 00:03:26,949 --> 00:03:29,637 于酒店医院等大型建筑的空调 73 00:03:29,637 --> 00:03:32,973 系统中堪称致命杀手尤其对那些 74 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:36,887 自诩钢筋铁骨可卡因上瘾体型肥胖烟不 75 00:03:36,887 --> 00:03:40,300 离手狂饮麦芽威士忌的暴发户蠢材而言 76 00:03:40,512 --> 00:03:43,187 更是格外凶险飞机在纽约降落 77 00:03:43,187 --> 00:03:45,723 后尽管司机一再劝我去离 78 00:03:45,736 --> 00:03:48,324 机场更近的医院我还是坚持 79 00:03:48,425 --> 00:03:50,461 让他直接送我去小屋我 80 00:03:50,473 --> 00:03:52,500 真正的理由是我的女友正在 81 00:03:52,512 --> 00:03:55,111 小屋里等我我知道她一个 82 00:03:55,111 --> 00:03:57,275 人在那里过夜会害怕她也是 83 00:03:57,275 --> 00:04:00,973 个非常漂亮的女孩即使男人濒临死亡他们 84 00:04:00,986 --> 00:04:04,287 也会想到性我万万没想到接下来的 85 00:04:04,300 --> 00:04:07,187 几个月里性将与我无缘那个 86 00:04:07,199 --> 00:04:09,611 在剧痛和阵阵恶心之中做出 87 00:04:09,611 --> 00:04:11,425 的非理性决定救了我的 88 00:04:11,425 --> 00:04:14,449 命这很幸运尽管当时我并 89 00:04:14,449 --> 00:04:16,975 没有感到太幸运这是伪装起来的 90 00:04:16,987 --> 00:04:20,812 幸运康涅狄格州的医院配备有24小时值班 91 00:04:20,812 --> 00:04:23,586 的诊断医师该州是美国人均 92 00:04:23,612 --> 00:04:25,937 最富裕的州之一其医院急诊室 93 00:04:25,937 --> 00:04:28,824 的秩序井然与邻近大城市众多市 94 00:04:28,836 --> 00:04:32,524 中心医院的混乱拥挤景象截然不同我被 95 00:04:32,550 --> 00:04:35,987 小屋邻居火速送往丹伯里医院后更幸运 96 00:04:35,987 --> 00:04:38,350 的是他是一名药剂师一 97 00:04:38,350 --> 00:04:40,274 眼就识别出这可能致命的 98 00:04:40,286 --> 00:04:43,149 高烧诊断医师在几分钟内做出了 99 00:04:43,161 --> 00:04:45,399 一个大胆且最终被证实正确的 100 00:04:45,411 --> 00:04:48,125 诊断若我当时听从司机的建议 101 00:04:48,411 --> 00:04:51,211 可能需要在纽约市医院里等待数小时甚至 102 00:04:51,225 --> 00:04:53,649 数日才能让一位疲惫不堪的急诊 103 00:04:53,649 --> 00:04:56,425 医生最终确诊这组复杂罕见的 104 00:04:56,425 --> 00:04:59,875 症状而到那时我恐怕早已陷入 105 00:04:59,899 --> 00:05:03,050 肺性昏迷再无回天之力那场 106 00:05:03,062 --> 00:05:05,661 疾病对我来说也是伪装的双重 107 00:05:05,675 --> 00:05:09,786 幸运它迫使我改变生活方式我曾 108 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:13,312 如此接近死亡以至于猛然惊醒回归现实 109 00:05:13,875 --> 00:05:16,750 有多接近近到医生询问我 110 00:05:16,750 --> 00:05:19,161 的宗教信仰问我是否需要见 111 00:05:19,161 --> 00:05:22,725 牧师或神父我自豪地汇报当时 112 00:05:22,737 --> 00:05:25,250 躺在冰床上身上插的管子 113 00:05:25,362 --> 00:05:26,536 比一袋意大利面里的还 114 00:05:26,536 --> 00:05:28,500 多我咬着牙挤出一句 115 00:05:28,524 --> 00:05:30,586 微弱的玩笑逗笑了一位漂亮 116 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:32,887 护士她当时正体贴地往我的 117 00:05:32,899 --> 00:05:36,286 生殖器上浇冰水以保持清醒不用 118 00:05:36,300 --> 00:05:40,000 牧师或神父谢谢医生不过你们手头 119 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:42,812 有风险投资人吗让我们回到那个 120 00:05:42,925 --> 00:05:44,987 更令人愉快的赚钱与伪装运气 121 00:05:44,987 --> 00:05:47,512 的世界我曾因一次当时被 122 00:05:47,524 --> 00:05:50,637 巧妙伪装的幸运事件赚取数百万英镑 123 00:05:51,211 --> 00:05:53,711 回溯到1990年我的英国公司 124 00:05:53,737 --> 00:05:56,324 一切顺遂至少我们当时都这么认为 125 00:05:56,899 --> 00:05:59,074 那时我正与美国的合伙人全力 126 00:05:59,086 --> 00:06:02,211 打造一个全新的商业版图此处无需 127 00:06:02,225 --> 00:06:05,850 赘述英国公司扩张迅猛我们在伦敦 128 00:06:05,850 --> 00:06:09,725 市中心菲茨罗维亚区的五个分散地点运营这种 129 00:06:09,725 --> 00:06:13,300 状态显然效率低下当时丹尼斯出版公司 130 00:06:13,300 --> 00:06:15,862 的总经理是位完全合格的会计师 131 00:06:16,100 --> 00:06:17,737 曾担任我们的财务总监 132 00:06:18,100 --> 00:06:20,899 第一课永远不要让财务总监或 133 00:06:20,911 --> 00:06:23,524 首席财务官担任任何公司的总经理 134 00:06:23,548 --> 00:06:26,574 或总裁确信我们的财务状况良好 135 00:06:26,687 --> 00:06:28,711 且盈利可观我请我的董事 136 00:06:28,723 --> 00:06:32,036 总经理我们称他为克里斯托弗尽管这 137 00:06:32,036 --> 00:06:34,711 不是他的真名在菲茨罗维亚物色一 138 00:06:34,711 --> 00:06:36,887 栋新的总部大楼他找到了 139 00:06:36,899 --> 00:06:40,000 一个简直是完美之选我们当然 140 00:06:40,012 --> 00:06:41,687 买不起但绝对付得起 141 00:06:41,699 --> 00:06:45,399 租金因为大家在同一屋檐下工作能省下 142 00:06:45,425 --> 00:06:48,925 不少开支谈判在平安夜开始并顺利 143 00:06:48,925 --> 00:06:51,961 完成当时我已经和一群女性朋友 144 00:06:52,074 --> 00:06:54,774 在加勒比海度假住着几间酒店套房 145 00:06:54,798 --> 00:06:59,211 和别墅第二条教训交易进行时切勿外出 146 00:06:59,211 --> 00:07:01,987 度假我为我们新总部大楼感到 147 00:07:02,012 --> 00:07:04,336 无比自豪甚至带着它的照片 148 00:07:04,362 --> 00:07:07,225 去度假这座名为查德威克姆大厦 149 00:07:07,225 --> 00:07:10,199 的建筑至今仍矗立在伦敦博尔索弗街 150 00:07:10,199 --> 00:07:13,286 上它造型奇特却典雅用伦敦 151 00:07:13,298 --> 00:07:16,262 东区小子的话来说就是光说不练 152 00:07:16,524 --> 00:07:21,625 华而不实但这场表演何其精彩查德威克姆 153 00:07:21,625 --> 00:07:25,348 大厦的立面宏伟壮观由气势恢宏的锻铁 154 00:07:25,361 --> 00:07:28,437 栏杆护卫柱子上装饰着众多石像 155 00:07:28,437 --> 00:07:32,086 鬼镶板窗户更是数以十计入口 156 00:07:32,098 --> 00:07:35,774 门廊庄重而简朴遗憾的是这 157 00:07:35,774 --> 00:07:38,287 栋建筑的进深很浅但谁 158 00:07:38,287 --> 00:07:40,736 在乎呢它完全撑足了场面 159 00:07:41,086 --> 00:07:44,836 对我们来说已经足够宽敞随后一个 160 00:07:44,861 --> 00:07:47,274 决定性的电话打来我的假期 161 00:07:47,298 --> 00:07:51,187 就此泡汤克里斯托弗作为总经理太过忙碌 162 00:07:51,637 --> 00:07:54,449 未能密切关注我们的账目英国丹尼斯 163 00:07:54,473 --> 00:07:57,486 出版公司那一年非但没有实现丰厚 164 00:07:57,500 --> 00:08:01,736 利润反而仅仅勉强收支平衡年度账目中 165 00:08:01,836 --> 00:08:04,137 出现了一个巨大的黑洞我们一直 166 00:08:04,149 --> 00:08:07,211 生活在虚幻的乐园中这其中完全 167 00:08:07,211 --> 00:08:09,986 没有不当行为或shady交易仅仅是 168 00:08:10,012 --> 00:08:12,812 会计错误加之我们更换了电脑会计 169 00:08:12,824 --> 00:08:16,736 软件包使问题更加严重第三课当 170 00:08:16,736 --> 00:08:21,125 你更换会计系统或会计师时务必反复 171 00:08:21,137 --> 00:08:23,798 核对数字如果在下一次迭代中 172 00:08:23,899 --> 00:08:27,387 没有发现错误我甘愿认输回想起来 173 00:08:27,824 --> 00:08:30,425 我怀疑克里斯托弗承担了许多本应 174 00:08:30,437 --> 00:08:32,875 属于他人的责任但这正是董事 175 00:08:32,886 --> 00:08:36,625 总经理总裁和首席执行官们拿高薪的 176 00:08:36,625 --> 00:08:39,037 原因若问题发生在他们任内 177 00:08:39,236 --> 00:08:41,961 就必须承担责任值得称赞的是 178 00:08:42,437 --> 00:08:45,500 克里斯托弗确实这么做了尽管我猜想 179 00:08:45,611 --> 00:08:47,687 这场危机让他苍老了一岁 180 00:08:48,261 --> 00:08:51,598 我们拼命试图退出查德威克姆大厦的交易 181 00:08:51,973 --> 00:08:55,875 但无济于事合同中没有免责条款我 182 00:08:55,875 --> 00:08:58,149 飞回伦敦以极高的利率 183 00:08:58,261 --> 00:09:00,848 担保了一笔贷款这实在愚蠢 184 00:09:01,199 --> 00:09:03,211 以我当时的资历本不该为 185 00:09:03,236 --> 00:09:07,312 商业贷款提供个人担保第四条准则除非 186 00:09:07,324 --> 00:09:09,924 被形势所迫万不得已绝不要为 187 00:09:09,949 --> 00:09:13,074 公司的商业贷款提供个人担保即便 188 00:09:13,098 --> 00:09:16,111 迫不得已也必须在协议中设定限额 189 00:09:16,125 --> 00:09:19,674 条款确保随着贷款金额逐步减少你 190 00:09:19,674 --> 00:09:22,649 的担保责任也能相应解除丹尼斯 191 00:09:22,662 --> 00:09:25,223 出版公司搬进了豪华的新总部 192 00:09:25,774 --> 00:09:28,098 我们对新环境很满意但接下来 193 00:09:28,098 --> 00:09:30,162 的几个月里依然穷得像教堂 194 00:09:30,162 --> 00:09:33,662 里的老鼠克里斯托弗收到美国一家竞争 195 00:09:33,674 --> 00:09:36,187 对手出版公司的工作邀请他接受 196 00:09:36,187 --> 00:09:38,199 了这份工作至今仍居住在 197 00:09:38,223 --> 00:09:40,375 美国西海岸容我补充一句 198 00:09:40,611 --> 00:09:42,875 他过得非常幸福我任命了 199 00:09:42,899 --> 00:09:45,736 新的总经理和财务总监生活继续 200 00:09:45,750 --> 00:09:48,973 向前一段时间后我和合伙人在 201 00:09:48,986 --> 00:09:51,199 美国大赚了一笔我发现 202 00:09:51,312 --> 00:09:55,687 自己手握巨额现金数千万美元自然我 203 00:09:55,699 --> 00:09:58,549 立刻开始以人类最快的速度挥霍这些钱 204 00:09:58,824 --> 00:10:01,412 就我而言这速度怕是能创 205 00:10:01,412 --> 00:10:05,149 下某种世界纪录新车新房新 206 00:10:05,149 --> 00:10:07,598 伴侣与新酒窖但我并非 207 00:10:07,625 --> 00:10:10,187 十足的傻瓜我的新任财务总监 208 00:10:10,287 --> 00:10:13,787 伊恩莱格特被证明是块瑰宝除了 209 00:10:13,799 --> 00:10:16,500 公司本身他迫使我将资金投向 210 00:10:16,511 --> 00:10:20,211 一些明智的领域查德威克姆公馆便是其中 211 00:10:20,223 --> 00:10:22,899 之一我以极低价格从业主 212 00:10:22,912 --> 00:10:25,836 手中购得这处房产六七年后再 213 00:10:25,836 --> 00:10:27,912 迁往更庞大的办公楼时将其 214 00:10:27,924 --> 00:10:32,562 转手利润相当可观确实非常可观第五 215 00:10:32,562 --> 00:10:35,761 课倾听理财高手的建议始终投资 216 00:10:35,761 --> 00:10:38,437 于地段优越的房产前提是你 217 00:10:38,437 --> 00:10:41,336 能现金支付且数年內无需转售 218 00:10:41,912 --> 00:10:44,636 那么负面伪装型运气从何而 219 00:10:44,636 --> 00:10:47,750 来它隐藏在1990年公司财报 220 00:10:47,750 --> 00:10:50,875 的黑洞中细想便知倘若 221 00:10:50,886 --> 00:10:53,250 我们早知实情我绝不会签 222 00:10:53,250 --> 00:10:56,449 下那栋豪华新楼的租约那样 223 00:10:56,549 --> 00:10:58,625 我便不会以租户的身份有 224 00:10:58,625 --> 00:11:01,737 机会从业主手中购得此楼毕竟 225 00:11:02,086 --> 00:11:05,024 我并非从事房地产业更重要的 226 00:11:05,024 --> 00:11:07,125 是我们便无法从后来向我 227 00:11:07,136 --> 00:11:09,350 购楼的开发商那里榨取惊人的 228 00:11:09,362 --> 00:11:13,437 价格由于伊恩发现查德威克姆大楼恰好位于 229 00:11:13,461 --> 00:11:16,000 该开发商零散收购的整个城市街区 230 00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:18,000 的正中央对方被迫支付了远 231 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:20,174 超市场价的金额让我赚 232 00:11:20,174 --> 00:11:22,961 得盆满钵满的并非精明的商业头脑 233 00:11:23,362 --> 00:11:25,750 而是纯粹的运气但我已做好 234 00:11:25,750 --> 00:11:28,187 准备抓住了这份伪装成机遇 235 00:11:28,187 --> 00:11:30,725 的幸运我最喜爱的哲学家之一 236 00:11:31,062 --> 00:11:34,162 公元一世纪的罗马人塞内卡曾言幸运 237 00:11:34,412 --> 00:11:36,549 是当准备遇见机遇时所发生 238 00:11:36,549 --> 00:11:38,537 的事我从未见过比这 239 00:11:38,549 --> 00:11:41,049 更精辟的定义正因如此我 240 00:11:41,049 --> 00:11:44,612 要反复重申准备乘以机遇请 241 00:11:44,636 --> 00:11:48,062 再念一遍用心牢记让它成为 242 00:11:48,074 --> 00:11:51,011 每日箴言幸运即是准备与机遇 243 00:11:51,011 --> 00:11:54,386 的乘积几个世纪以来这句话逐渐 244 00:11:54,399 --> 00:11:57,336 演变成通俗易懂的警句比如高尔夫球手 245 00:11:57,336 --> 00:12:01,261 加里普莱尔所言幸运真是奇妙我 246 00:12:01,274 --> 00:12:03,449 练习得越刻苦运气就越好 247 00:12:03,862 --> 00:12:05,562 但塞内卡的原句远更具 248 00:12:05,574 --> 00:12:09,174 深意值得我们细细品味准备才是关键 249 00:12:09,737 --> 00:12:13,475 要未雨绸缪提前下苦功做足功课 250 00:12:14,024 --> 00:12:17,937 脚踏实地做事同时保持敏锐以便在机遇 251 00:12:17,949 --> 00:12:21,537 降临时能及时捕捉然后牢牢把握 252 00:12:22,100 --> 00:12:24,362 如果你没有做好准备机会就会 253 00:12:24,386 --> 00:12:26,924 白白溜走这将成为你人生中 254 00:12:26,924 --> 00:12:29,250 的又一个遗憾又一个要是当初 255 00:12:29,824 --> 00:12:32,037 即使你已做好准备却因忙于 256 00:12:32,062 --> 00:12:35,662 管理琐事棘手的离婚搬家或其他 257 00:12:35,674 --> 00:12:38,586 种种事务而无暇他顾幸运同样 258 00:12:38,586 --> 00:12:41,537 会与你擦肩而过数月或数年后 259 00:12:41,812 --> 00:12:44,350 你将会感叹要是我当时能 260 00:12:44,350 --> 00:12:46,386 发现那个机会就好了我本 261 00:12:46,386 --> 00:12:49,862 已准备就绪却未能及时留意要是当初 262 00:12:50,100 --> 00:12:52,024 是英语中最令人心碎的两个 263 00:12:52,024 --> 00:12:52,324 词 264 00:12:53,100 --> 00:12:55,500 还有一位我相识三十载的老友 265 00:12:56,062 --> 00:12:59,011 他自1970年代初我们各自创业起 266 00:12:59,287 --> 00:13:00,575 就一直是比我更出色的 267 00:13:00,586 --> 00:13:03,774 出版商同时也是更精明的商人他 268 00:13:03,787 --> 00:13:07,000 拥有更广泛的人脉网络总能率先 269 00:13:07,011 --> 00:13:09,486 洞察行业风向他的写作技巧远 270 00:13:09,486 --> 00:13:11,674 胜于我虽然我知道这并不 271 00:13:11,674 --> 00:13:15,162 算什么了不起的成就但即便如此出色 272 00:13:15,162 --> 00:13:17,162 的写作能力在我们这一行 273 00:13:17,250 --> 00:13:20,625 仍颇为重要他更频繁更专注 274 00:13:20,625 --> 00:13:23,386 地倾听他人他是个强硬但公正 275 00:13:23,386 --> 00:13:25,537 的谈判者比我更有耐心 276 00:13:26,100 --> 00:13:28,812 天啊他确实需要更多耐心比 277 00:13:28,812 --> 00:13:30,923 约伯还要多的耐心如同那位 278 00:13:30,950 --> 00:13:33,037 受折磨的圣经人物的现代翻版 279 00:13:33,450 --> 00:13:35,975 厄运始终纠缠着他刚掘到 280 00:13:35,986 --> 00:13:39,250 黄金转眼就化为废渣刚挖出新 281 00:13:39,250 --> 00:13:41,600 矿转眼就被无人预料的地下水 282 00:13:41,611 --> 00:13:45,250 淹没事事不顺从未真正顺利过 283 00:13:45,798 --> 00:13:49,075 这必定令人极度愤懑近年来他的 284 00:13:49,086 --> 00:13:52,287 性情每况愈下如今他对那些天赋与 285 00:13:52,298 --> 00:13:54,736 决心远不如自己却成就斐然的 286 00:13:54,736 --> 00:13:58,086 人流露出几分怨怼这或许情有可原 287 00:13:58,662 --> 00:14:00,736 我发现自己开始回避与他相处 288 00:14:01,086 --> 00:14:03,711 其他人也是如此是因为我感到 289 00:14:03,724 --> 00:14:06,062 内疚吗是因为我想躲避他 290 00:14:06,086 --> 00:14:09,500 突如其来的尖刻与黑色幽默吗是因为 291 00:14:09,500 --> 00:14:12,149 我提防着那些卑劣而不由自主的 292 00:14:12,173 --> 00:14:15,724 幸灾乐祸吗还是因为在我心中某个异教的 293 00:14:15,736 --> 00:14:19,575 角落我深信厄运或许会传染我 294 00:14:19,575 --> 00:14:21,849 不知道答案但我确实知道他 295 00:14:21,849 --> 00:14:25,062 本该富有至少像我一样富有或许 296 00:14:25,086 --> 00:14:29,136 更胜一筹那么是什么将我们区分开来 297 00:14:29,700 --> 00:14:32,274 或许一次冷静的分析能帮助我们 298 00:14:32,375 --> 00:14:35,274 隐约窥见人类所谓的幸运与不幸 299 00:14:35,375 --> 00:14:38,298 那混沌的世界阿尔伯特不幸的本质 300 00:14:38,312 --> 00:14:41,287 运气仅仅是汗水的红利吗一个 301 00:14:41,287 --> 00:14:43,149 人能有多少次掸去尘土 302 00:14:43,423 --> 00:14:47,961 重振旗鼓一切从头开始而不灰心丧气我已 303 00:14:47,974 --> 00:14:50,611 提及温斯顿丘吉尔的若你正经历 304 00:14:50,625 --> 00:14:53,537 地狱请继续前行倘若你是一 305 00:14:53,537 --> 00:14:55,886 位抽着雪茄步入暮年的英雄 306 00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:59,099 虽处职业生涯低谷却坚信自己 307 00:14:59,111 --> 00:15:02,336 注定成就伟业此言自然极好但 308 00:15:02,348 --> 00:15:06,024 我们这些普通人呢关于运气无论好坏 309 00:15:06,449 --> 00:15:10,062 唯一的真相是它终将改变平均法则 310 00:15:10,174 --> 00:15:12,636 几乎确保了这一点而在此 311 00:15:13,074 --> 00:15:14,486 我认为这正体现了我和 312 00:15:14,486 --> 00:15:16,662 我那位不幸的朋友姑且称 313 00:15:16,662 --> 00:15:20,199 他为阿尔伯特之间的一个区别阿尔伯特 314 00:15:20,223 --> 00:15:23,000 如此贴近市场的潮流涌动以至于他 315 00:15:23,000 --> 00:15:26,125 的直觉反而将他引入歧途每当他 316 00:15:26,125 --> 00:15:28,924 在路上再次遭遇颠簸或是发生正面 317 00:15:28,937 --> 00:15:31,750 冲突时他总试图通过改变方向 318 00:15:31,848 --> 00:15:34,986 来扭转运气这并非因为他缺乏 319 00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:38,386 毅力阿尔伯特拥有充沛的精力和耐力 320 00:15:38,961 --> 00:15:41,711 但他未能如丘吉尔所言坚持到底 321 00:15:42,287 --> 00:15:45,274 相反他不断追寻新的牧场那些 322 00:15:45,299 --> 00:15:48,537 阳光灿烂的黄金高地哲学家莱布尼茨所 323 00:15:48,537 --> 00:15:51,598 说的所有可能世界中最好的世界或许 324 00:15:51,598 --> 00:15:53,711 在新的地方他能找到自己 325 00:15:53,711 --> 00:15:57,211 的财富并改变命运然而他立刻 326 00:15:57,223 --> 00:15:59,537 就会遭遇陌生险恶国度的种种 327 00:15:59,549 --> 00:16:02,761 磨难却无法借助上次冒险中精心 328 00:16:02,761 --> 00:16:05,312 绘制的地图他未能像漫画家 329 00:16:05,336 --> 00:16:09,386 罗伯特克鲁姆倡导的那样坚持前行这种 330 00:16:09,412 --> 00:16:11,836 逃避而非战斗的行为特征是 331 00:16:11,848 --> 00:16:14,774 猎物而非捕食者的标志尽管你 332 00:16:14,774 --> 00:16:16,674 会在许多自我提升类书籍中 333 00:16:16,687 --> 00:16:19,687 读到合作共生与协同进化绝非 334 00:16:19,711 --> 00:16:22,049 致富之道它们或许能导向更 335 00:16:22,049 --> 00:16:23,961 美好的世界或许能让你成为 336 00:16:23,986 --> 00:16:26,674 更快乐的人更优秀的管理者但 337 00:16:26,687 --> 00:16:29,199 绝不会让你变得富有除非是 338 00:16:29,199 --> 00:16:32,598 在精神层面要成为富人你必须 339 00:16:32,598 --> 00:16:36,287 以捕食者的姿态行事更进一步说你 340 00:16:36,299 --> 00:16:40,973 必须成为捕食者而阿尔伯特并非捕食者由于 341 00:16:40,986 --> 00:16:43,361 如此灵巧迅捷地在不同目标间 342 00:16:43,375 --> 00:16:46,386 切换阿尔伯特并未将自己置于运气 343 00:16:46,386 --> 00:16:48,848 的轨迹上他既没有吸引运气 344 00:16:48,861 --> 00:16:52,111 降临也没有主动创造运气他过分 345 00:16:52,125 --> 00:16:54,261 沉迷于下一座山丘后那 346 00:16:54,261 --> 00:16:57,361 片青翠欲滴的芳草地不过话说回来 347 00:16:57,912 --> 00:17:00,774 阿尔伯特确实比我更聪明他受 348 00:17:00,774 --> 00:17:03,098 过良好教育在大学里读遍 349 00:17:03,098 --> 00:17:05,386 了该读的书不像我这样是 350 00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:08,136 自学成才的学者但这份聪慧与 351 00:17:08,150 --> 00:17:11,250 想象力也伴随着弊端他行动前 352 00:17:11,250 --> 00:17:13,773 总是思虑过多把每个选项都掂量 353 00:17:13,773 --> 00:17:16,412 得过分仔细甚至能预想出失败 354 00:17:16,412 --> 00:17:19,375 的可能性正因他足够精明总 355 00:17:19,375 --> 00:17:21,787 想通过转向另一个全新且无人竞争 356 00:17:21,787 --> 00:17:24,424 的市场来规避风险反而将自己 357 00:17:24,449 --> 00:17:26,674 引入了不确定的境地最终导致 358 00:17:26,686 --> 00:17:29,523 失误无人竞争的市场往往有其 359 00:17:29,523 --> 00:17:33,349 原因自然界厌恶真空如果某个市场真 360 00:17:33,349 --> 00:17:35,912 的无人问津很可能这个市场根本不 361 00:17:35,912 --> 00:17:39,324 存在阿尔伯特总是比媒体潮流快上半步 362 00:17:39,711 --> 00:17:42,299 算是个预言家吧但恕我直言 363 00:17:42,586 --> 00:17:44,924 像谷歌那帮家伙毕竟是少数 364 00:17:45,311 --> 00:17:47,549 真正能发财的预言家可没几个 365 00:17:48,125 --> 00:17:51,148 新软件常常面临这样的困境才华横溢 366 00:17:51,148 --> 00:17:53,849 的设计师们创造出华而不实的程序 367 00:17:54,162 --> 00:17:57,261 却未能解决任何实际问题他们不得不 368 00:17:57,287 --> 00:18:00,398 绞尽脑汁为软件寻找或虚构应用场景 369 00:18:00,961 --> 00:18:03,912 若最终失败便会失去用户投资 370 00:18:03,912 --> 00:18:06,849 方与资金支持以电子表格为 371 00:18:06,849 --> 00:18:09,737 例如今它已成为全球财务部门 372 00:18:09,761 --> 00:18:12,375 最普及的工具之一在电子表格 373 00:18:12,386 --> 00:18:15,250 问世前很少有人会花费大量时间 374 00:18:15,349 --> 00:18:18,086 进行假设分析或构建替代性财务 375 00:18:18,099 --> 00:18:21,362 模型而现在这已成为所有人 376 00:18:21,362 --> 00:18:22,761 的常规工作流程 377 00:18:23,099 --> 00:18:26,061 但鲜有创意或新技术能收获如此 378 00:18:26,061 --> 00:18:29,525 意外的成功然而阿尔伯特却耗费大量 379 00:18:29,537 --> 00:18:33,174 时间追寻这些虚无缥缈的创新苦心钻研 380 00:18:33,174 --> 00:18:35,537 后又不厌其烦地向我们这些技术 381 00:18:35,549 --> 00:18:38,436 保守派反复解释他那疲惫的解说 382 00:18:38,549 --> 00:18:41,949 总让旁人自惭形秽阿尔伯特和我之间 383 00:18:42,061 --> 00:18:45,386 还有其他差异他极其推崇合伙人制度 384 00:18:45,686 --> 00:18:49,023 股权分配以及员工利润共享我将 385 00:18:49,023 --> 00:18:51,549 在后续章节专门探讨这一主题 386 00:18:51,875 --> 00:18:55,186 详见第14章分一杯羹但在此 387 00:18:55,287 --> 00:18:57,612 需要提及的是在阿尔伯特的实践 388 00:18:57,612 --> 00:19:00,136 中这种利益分配方案早在产生 389 00:19:00,162 --> 00:19:03,061 任何可分配利润之前就已事无巨细 390 00:19:03,061 --> 00:19:06,398 地规划完成他认为这些措施能 391 00:19:06,398 --> 00:19:09,436 激励同事但此类安排极其耗时 392 00:19:09,662 --> 00:19:12,474 且会分散注意力而专注恰恰是 393 00:19:12,487 --> 00:19:15,511 积累原始财富的必要条件正如我所 394 00:19:15,511 --> 00:19:18,298 说阿尔伯特是一位凶悍的谈判 395 00:19:18,298 --> 00:19:20,936 者也是消化和掌握细节的能手 396 00:19:21,511 --> 00:19:24,474 但他是个完美主义者委派能力严重 397 00:19:24,474 --> 00:19:27,162 不足他对自己擅长的事务如此 398 00:19:27,173 --> 00:19:29,787 苛求以至于连稍次一等的结果 399 00:19:29,900 --> 00:19:33,548 都无法接受这意味着他必须亲力亲为 400 00:19:34,125 --> 00:19:37,723 倘若初次尝试未能尽善尽美他就会 401 00:19:37,750 --> 00:19:41,461 反复重做直至完美无瑕我们将在本 402 00:19:41,461 --> 00:19:44,537 书后续章节探讨委派的重要性参见 403 00:19:44,561 --> 00:19:48,473 第十三章委派的乐趣但阿尔伯特多年来不愿 404 00:19:48,473 --> 00:19:50,775 让年轻管理者从错误中学习 405 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:53,598 这个特质让他付出了沉重代价 406 00:19:53,825 --> 00:19:55,973 不仅浪费了时间更导致了管理 407 00:19:55,973 --> 00:19:58,336 人才的高流失率尽管他对 408 00:19:58,348 --> 00:20:01,487 员工很公平有时甚至过于公平但 409 00:20:01,500 --> 00:20:03,811 他们并不爱戴他他们不爱戴 410 00:20:03,811 --> 00:20:06,237 他是因为没有获得成长的机会 411 00:20:06,811 --> 00:20:10,048 在资本主义社会中管理良好的企业若 412 00:20:10,048 --> 00:20:12,787 说有什么优点那便是培养人才 413 00:20:13,037 --> 00:20:15,950 鼓励成长的机会除了金钱之外这是 414 00:20:15,961 --> 00:20:18,900 致富路上最宝贵的东西由于凡事 415 00:20:18,923 --> 00:20:22,423 亲力亲为阿尔伯特有时也会与近在眼前的 416 00:20:22,436 --> 00:20:25,412 好运失之交臂他让我想起一个准 417 00:20:25,412 --> 00:20:29,386 新郎为了确保婚礼完美无缺他热衷于重新 418 00:20:29,386 --> 00:20:32,949 装修教堂宴会厅和新房却未能察觉 419 00:20:33,061 --> 00:20:36,836 未婚妻早已厌倦等待另嫁他人此外 420 00:20:37,424 --> 00:20:39,924 阿尔伯特过于在意因为他已年近 421 00:20:39,924 --> 00:20:42,924 六旬日渐感到绝望把自己和自己 422 00:20:42,924 --> 00:20:44,924 的命运看得太重我之所以 423 00:20:44,936 --> 00:20:47,086 知道这一点是因为我曾 424 00:20:47,098 --> 00:20:49,061 与他几次共饮至醉这 425 00:20:49,061 --> 00:20:51,061 向来是真正了解一个人的好 426 00:20:51,061 --> 00:20:54,487 方法我徒劳地向他指出我们 427 00:20:54,500 --> 00:20:57,912 不过是商界巨贾罢了一百年后谁会 428 00:20:57,924 --> 00:21:01,186 在乎我们赚了一千万还是五亿没有 429 00:21:01,186 --> 00:21:03,862 人会在意拥有过多金钱并不 430 00:21:03,862 --> 00:21:07,348 重要摔断脖子才重要患上 431 00:21:07,362 --> 00:21:11,574 癌症才重要食不果腹才重要失去所 432 00:21:11,574 --> 00:21:14,811 爱之人才重要但金钱过剩绝对 433 00:21:14,824 --> 00:21:18,662 无关紧要它只是人生游戏的一部分正如 434 00:21:18,662 --> 00:21:21,412 HL门肯所言金钱的主要 435 00:21:21,424 --> 00:21:23,686 价值在于我们生活在一个高估它 436 00:21:23,686 --> 00:21:26,074 的世界里这是一个相当公允的 437 00:21:26,086 --> 00:21:28,912 总结倘若我们生活在海藻被高估 438 00:21:28,912 --> 00:21:30,875 的世界里我会收集成吨 439 00:21:30,875 --> 00:21:33,848 成吨的海藻并且乐在其中但我 440 00:21:33,848 --> 00:21:36,461 不会自欺欺人地认为这有多重要 441 00:21:36,686 --> 00:21:41,211 那不过是海藻罢了但阿尔伯特始终无法 442 00:21:41,223 --> 00:21:44,500 领悟他从不舍得尽情自嘲不愿 443 00:21:44,500 --> 00:21:47,261 在月光下的派对上赤身裸体纵情 444 00:21:47,261 --> 00:21:50,150 起舞当我们痛饮过量麦芽威士忌时 445 00:21:50,375 --> 00:21:53,424 他更不会放声高唱厄尔公爵或 446 00:21:53,598 --> 00:21:56,636 嘟嘟隆隆的歌词老天作证 447 00:21:56,750 --> 00:21:58,125 他连这些歌的歌词都记 448 00:21:58,125 --> 00:22:01,400 不住他太在意旁人眼光太执着 449 00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:05,074 于维持威严谈判时他无法放空思绪 450 00:22:05,375 --> 00:22:08,174 用洞穿一切的目光直视对手更 451 00:22:08,186 --> 00:22:10,074 做不到从堆满数百万美元的 452 00:22:10,098 --> 00:22:13,199 谈判桌前转身离去该如何换 453 00:22:13,199 --> 00:22:17,400 个说法呢幸运女神从不眷恋阿尔伯特这般 454 00:22:17,424 --> 00:22:19,875 痴迷的追求者她钟爱的是那些 455 00:22:19,900 --> 00:22:22,473 疯癫的狂徒那些随时敢对她 456 00:22:22,473 --> 00:22:24,662 说滚开或别烦我的混 457 00:22:24,662 --> 00:22:27,961 球她永远不会垂青那些需要她 458 00:22:28,324 --> 00:22:31,362 渴望崇拜她的人如果阿尔伯特不再 459 00:22:31,375 --> 00:22:34,936 试图碰运气而是专心致志地赚大钱如果 460 00:22:34,936 --> 00:22:37,186 他对那个贱女人不理不睬哪怕她 461 00:22:37,199 --> 00:22:39,612 主动找上门如果她每施舍一点 462 00:22:39,636 --> 00:22:42,636 小恩小惠他都大声咒骂谁知道会 463 00:22:42,636 --> 00:22:45,174 怎样呢她本就是个反复无常的 464 00:22:45,186 --> 00:22:48,636 婊子而曲意逢迎绝对是永远别想 465 00:22:48,737 --> 00:22:51,250 从她那儿分到一杯羹的最后 466 00:22:51,737 --> 00:22:54,398 阿尔伯特有个癖好而且一直都有 467 00:22:54,599 --> 00:22:56,886 就是总说自己倒霉他表达 468 00:22:56,886 --> 00:22:59,287 的方式很含蓄但终究还是在 469 00:22:59,287 --> 00:23:01,849 说他说得太频繁了让 470 00:23:01,849 --> 00:23:04,898 我反感你不需要读诺曼文森特 471 00:23:05,162 --> 00:23:07,737 皮尔的积极思考的力量就知道 472 00:23:08,237 --> 00:23:10,561 如果你反复强调负面的事情你 473 00:23:10,574 --> 00:23:13,211 就是在训练自己变得消极阿尔伯特 474 00:23:13,237 --> 00:23:15,112 为了逗乐周围的人而戴上 475 00:23:15,125 --> 00:23:17,724 那副倒霉蛋的面具如今这面具 476 00:23:17,836 --> 00:23:20,224 戴得实在太合适了他正在 477 00:23:20,237 --> 00:23:23,162 变成那个面具这是个危险又愚蠢 478 00:23:23,162 --> 00:23:26,125 的把戏他本该更明白的也许 479 00:23:26,125 --> 00:23:28,961 他确实更明白但除非他走运 480 00:23:29,375 --> 00:23:31,961 否则他永远富不起来无人能 481 00:23:31,961 --> 00:23:35,199 否认运气或至少是偶然的存在 482 00:23:35,474 --> 00:23:38,936 在生活爱情商业和财富积累中 483 00:23:39,037 --> 00:23:42,061 皆是如此如果你彻底排斥任何 484 00:23:42,086 --> 00:23:44,987 超自然概念如果你是个纯粹的无神论 485 00:23:44,987 --> 00:23:48,273 者或大写字母H开头的人文主义者 486 00:23:48,561 --> 00:23:50,799 那么你必须承认地球上的生命 487 00:23:50,811 --> 00:23:54,162 本身也是偶然的产物你无法两头 488 00:23:54,174 --> 00:23:58,511 兼顾古谚有云天佑勇者此言 489 00:23:58,511 --> 00:24:01,586 不虚但命运似乎格外鄙夷那些 490 00:24:01,699 --> 00:24:04,636 过度渴求金钱之人更明显蔑视 491 00:24:04,648 --> 00:24:07,211 那些害怕失去已有财富的男女 492 00:24:07,787 --> 00:24:11,287 正如威廉莎士比亚在奥赛罗中所言 493 00:24:11,586 --> 00:24:13,711 安贫即是富且是十足 494 00:24:13,711 --> 00:24:16,112 的富足但对于永惧贫穷之 495 00:24:16,112 --> 00:24:18,648 人无尽的财富亦如严冬般 496 00:24:18,662 --> 00:24:22,211 贫瘠关于运气的建议是当幸运女神 497 00:24:22,224 --> 00:24:25,487 现身时要对她放声大笑尽情 498 00:24:25,500 --> 00:24:28,674 索取她的馈赠迅速把握良机但 499 00:24:28,686 --> 00:24:31,386 永远别向她道谢她转身寻找 500 00:24:31,412 --> 00:24:33,549 下一个目标时请立刻将她 501 00:24:33,561 --> 00:24:36,599 遗忘用现代带有性别偏见的说法 502 00:24:36,612 --> 00:24:39,936 就是欲擒故纵要把她当摇钱树 503 00:24:40,336 --> 00:24:43,737 别当心上人不必主动寻觅或打探 504 00:24:43,737 --> 00:24:45,862 她的踪迹这算不上君子 505 00:24:45,875 --> 00:24:48,211 所为但你们本就不是来 506 00:24:48,211 --> 00:24:50,537 学做君子的你们要我传授 507 00:24:50,537 --> 00:24:53,412 的是致富之道以下是我 508 00:24:53,412 --> 00:24:55,237 对这个恼人又费解的现象的 509 00:24:55,261 --> 00:24:58,449 最终见解为运气做好准备但别 510 00:24:58,474 --> 00:25:00,724 主动追寻让她来找你 511 00:25:01,099 --> 00:25:04,487 创造属于自己的运气不要哀叹永远别 512 00:25:04,487 --> 00:25:07,775 自称倒霉你不是还活着吗要 513 00:25:07,775 --> 00:25:12,723 大胆要勇敢别感谢吉星高照星辰根本 514 00:25:12,737 --> 00:25:16,199 听不见坚守既定的道路别再 515 00:25:16,211 --> 00:25:19,224 眺望山那边臆想的青草地别试图 516 00:25:19,250 --> 00:25:22,936 独自包揽一切学会委派任务并教会 517 00:25:22,949 --> 00:25:27,436 他人如何委派要明白大多数掠食者一生 518 00:25:27,436 --> 00:25:29,912 多半靠运气存活这与他们的 519 00:25:29,924 --> 00:25:33,461 猎物截然不同抱怨者与懦夫每日经历 520 00:25:33,487 --> 00:25:36,950 百次死亡做自己的英雄若英雄 521 00:25:36,950 --> 00:25:40,500 气概不合你性情不妨先模仿现实 522 00:25:40,523 --> 00:25:43,075 终会追赶上你的脚步直接 523 00:25:43,075 --> 00:25:45,923 行动道歉总比求得许可容易得 524 00:25:45,923 --> 00:25:48,862 多永远别把追求财富太当真 525 00:25:49,423 --> 00:25:53,511 这不过是场游戏老兄下次遇见幸运女神 526 00:25:53,825 --> 00:25:55,037 替我拍一下她的翘臀 527 00:25:55,599 --> 00:25:59,836 保持幸运积累财富然后散尽千金 528 00:26:00,398 --> 00:26:02,700 后面我们会细说这点别给儿子 529 00:26:02,711 --> 00:26:05,375 起名阿尔伯特开个玩笑